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“Just as the question in career choice is not "Where can I make the biggest impact?" but "Where can I make the biggest impact that wouldn't have happened without me?" so also in philanthropy, it's relevant whether other people would have donated to the funding gap that you're intending to fill. The more effective the charity is, the more likely your donation would have been eventually replaced.” — Brian Tomasik
Just as the question in career choice is not "Where can I make the biggest impact?" but "Where can I make the biggest impact that wouldn't have happened without me?" so also in philanthropy, it's relevant whether other people would have donated to the funding gap that you're intending to fill. The more effective the charity is, the more likely your donation would have been eventually replaced.