“The most robust evidence indicates that this wisdom-of-crowds principle holds when forecasts are made independently before being averaged together. In a true betting market (including the stock market), people can and do react to one another’s behavior.”
Quote by Nate Silver
Work
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't
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Author
Nate Silver
Nate Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer, and election forecaster. He is best known for accurately predicting the outcomes of the 2008 and 2012 U.S. presidential elections using statistical models. Silver founded the FiveThirtyEight website, which focuses on data-driven journalism in politics, sports, and science. His book 'The Signal and the Noise' explores the art and science of prediction. Silver's work emphasizes transparency and rigorous analysis, making him a leading figure in the data journalism movement. more
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