Quotessence
Home / Quotes / Quote by Nate Silver

Quote by Nate Silver

Work

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't

Browse quotes and source details for this work. more

Author

Nate Silver
Nate Silver

Nate Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer, and election forecaster. He is best known for accurately predicting the outcomes of the 2008 and 2012 U.S. presidential elections using statistical models. Silver founded the FiveThirtyEight website, which focuses on data-driven journalism in politics, sports, and science. His book 'The Signal and the Noise' explores the art and science of prediction. Silver's work emphasizes transparency and rigorous analysis, making him a leading figure in the data journalism movement. more

You May Also Like

“In all sorts of markets—music, film, art, and politics—the future of popularity will be harder to predict as the broadcast power of radio and television democratizes and the channels of exposure grow.... The gatekeepers had their day. Now there are simply too many gates to keep.”

MediaPopularityForecastingFuture Prediction
Book:Hit Makers: The Science of Popularity in an Age of Distraction
Create image

“Nor, if the succession of events exercises a charm, is unpredictability by any means the least part of it. When a forecast is made, no matter what it may be, it is always tempting to prove it wrong. Events themselves often help us out in this regard. There are overpredicted events, for instance, that obligingly decline to occur; and then there are the exactly opposite kind - those which occur without forewarning. It behoves us to bank on such conjunctural surprises - such 'backdraughts'. We must bet on the Witz of events themselves. If we lose, at least we shall have had the satisfaction of defying the objective idiocy of the probabilities. This obligation is a vital function - part of our collective genetic heritage. Indeed, this is the only genuine function of the intellect: to embrace contradictions, to exercise irony, to take the opposite tack, to exploit rifts and reversibility - even to fly in the face of the lawful and the factual. If the intellectuals of today seem to have run out of things to say, this is because they have failed to assume this ironic function, confining themselves within the limits of their moral, political or philosophical consciousness despite the fact that the rules have changed, that all irony, all radical criticism now belongs exclusively to the haphazard, the viral, the catastrophic - to accidental or system-led reversals. Such are the new rules of the game - such is the new principle of uncertainty that now holds sway over all. [...]”

TruthJestForecastingForewarningWitz
Book:The Transparency of Evil: Essays in Extreme Phenomena
Create image

“Why, if one wants to compare life to anything, one must liken it to being blown through the Tube at fifty miles an hour--landing at the other end without a single hairpin in one's hair! Shot out at the feet of God entirely naked! Tumbling head over heels in the asphodel meadows like brown paper parcels pitched down a shoot in the post office! With one's hair flying back like the tail of a race-horse. Yes, that seems to express the rapidity of life, the perpetual waste and repair; all so casual, all so haphazard ...”

LifeTime
Book:The Mark on the Wall
Create image

“Creating an algorithmic trading system should be every trader's goal. Yet, developing a trading system can be overwhelming since it involves several moving parts. Another challenge is that today's markets require an algorithm that adapts to different market conditions. In "Algorithmic Trading 101" Jacinta Chan sets you up by starting with the basics and walking you through the process, step-by-step. She touches on all aspects of a trading system. After going through the entire process detailed in the book, the trader will be ready to develop a customized trading system that follows the principles of professional traders." Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan, Director, Site Content StockCharts.com”

InvestmentFinanceTradingAlgorithmForecastingChartsTechnical IndicatorsTechnical Analysis
Book:Algorithm Trading 101: Trading made simple for everyone
Create image