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Forecasting Quotes

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Forecasting Quotes

“Proformas rarely perform; missed projections are more often the norm. Still, we skew them up high, we miss but we try, for proformas which rarely perform.”

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Author:Ryan Lilly
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“In all sorts of markets—music, film, art, and politics—the future of popularity will be harder to predict as the broadcast power of radio and television democratizes and the channels of exposure grow.... The gatekeepers had their day. Now there are simply too many gates to keep.”

MediaPopularityForecastingFuture Prediction
Book:Hit Makers: The Science of Popularity in an Age of Distraction
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“Nor, if the succession of events exercises a charm, is unpredictability by any means the least part of it. When a forecast is made, no matter what it may be, it is always tempting to prove it wrong. Events themselves often help us out in this regard. There are overpredicted events, for instance, that obligingly decline to occur; and then there are the exactly opposite kind - those which occur without forewarning. It behoves us to bank on such conjunctural surprises - such 'backdraughts'. We must bet on the Witz of events themselves. If we lose, at least we shall have had the satisfaction of defying the objective idiocy of the probabilities. This obligation is a vital function - part of our collective genetic heritage. Indeed, this is the only genuine function of the intellect: to embrace contradictions, to exercise irony, to take the opposite tack, to exploit rifts and reversibility - even to fly in the face of the lawful and the factual. If the intellectuals of today seem to have run out of things to say, this is because they have failed to assume this ironic function, confining themselves within the limits of their moral, political or philosophical consciousness despite the fact that the rules have changed, that all irony, all radical criticism now belongs exclusively to the haphazard, the viral, the catastrophic - to accidental or system-led reversals. Such are the new rules of the game - such is the new principle of uncertainty that now holds sway over all. [...]”

TruthJestForecastingForewarningWitz
Book:The Transparency of Evil: Essays in Extreme Phenomena
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“Creating an algorithmic trading system should be every trader's goal. Yet, developing a trading system can be overwhelming since it involves several moving parts. Another challenge is that today's markets require an algorithm that adapts to different market conditions. In "Algorithmic Trading 101" Jacinta Chan sets you up by starting with the basics and walking you through the process, step-by-step. She touches on all aspects of a trading system. After going through the entire process detailed in the book, the trader will be ready to develop a customized trading system that follows the principles of professional traders." Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan, Director, Site Content StockCharts.com”

InvestmentFinanceTradingAlgorithmForecastingChartsTechnical IndicatorsTechnical Analysis
Book:Algorithm Trading 101: Trading made simple for everyone
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“We are convinced that the intelligent investor can derive satisfactory results from pricing of either type (market timing or fundamental analysis via price). We are equally sure that if he places his emphasis on timing, in the sense of forecasting, he will end up as a speculator and with a speculator's financial results." And "The speculator's primary interest lies in anticipating and profiting from market fluctuations. The investor's primary interest lies in acquiring and holding suitable securities at suitable prices.”

IfsEndsLyingInterestResultsSecurityTypeIntelligentFundamentalsInvestingFinancialConvincedPrimariesAnalysisInvestorsTimingEmphasisSuitableFluctuationSpeculatorsPricingForecastingMarket TimingFinancial Results
Author:Benjamin Graham
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“Satellite photography in the 1970's gave rise to the long-range weather forecast, a month at a time. This in turn gave rise to the observation that the long-range weather forecast was wrong most of the time. In turn, this gave rise to the dropping of the long-range weather forecast and to the admission that really accurate forecasting could only cover the next day or two, and not always then.”

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Author:Miles Kington
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“Expert estimates of probability are often off by factors of hundreds or thousands. [...] I used to be annoyed when the margin of error was high in a forecasting model that I might put together. Now I view it as perhaps the single most important piece of information that a forecaster provides. When we publish a forecast on FiveThirtyEight, I go to great lengths to document the uncertainty attached to it, even if the uncertainty is sufficiently large that the forecast won't make for punchy headlines.”

IfsImportantMightTogetherUsedViewsPiecesInformationModelsErrorsFactorsUsed To BeUncertaintyExpertsLengthDocumentsProbabilityPublishMarginsAnnoyedHeadlinesForecastsForecasting
Author:Nate Silver
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“Now if you can recognize and memorize a grandmaster's game, and you have the respect to understand [Zimbabwean president Robert] Mugabe who has survived past anyone's expectations, and make the simple assumption it wasn't an accident, and you understand why he did what he did, now you're ready to predict ... The key to forecasting is to understand both the constraints nations are under and the manner in which the struggle for power shapes leaders.”

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Author:George Friedman
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“Constraint theory asks: What is the price for doing this? Now one way around constraint theory is declaring your enemy crazy. Crazy and stupid are not concepts used in forecasting. When people say they're really stupid or they're crazy, that's laziness. That means I don't want to think through their position or about what they're really going to do.”

PeopleThinkingWayWantMeanUsedAsksEnemyCrazyStupidPositionTheoryConceptsOne WayLazinessConstraintsDeclaringReally StupidForecasting
Author:George Friedman
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“I'm concerned with the world economy, I'm a specialist in forecasting in that area, and I have a lot of influence in that area, naturally. How big it is, or how big it is personally, is not relevant. The fact is, I'm on the case, where other people are not, and more and more people realize, again and again, that I'm on the case!”

PeopleWorldFactsBigsRealizingCasesEconomyInfluenceAreasConcernedRelevantAgain And AgainSpecialistsWorld EconomyForecasting
Author:Lyndon LaRouche
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“Did they launch the last space shuttle yet?” – Sundown “I don’t follow.” – Ren “I’m just thinking maybe we should evacuate the whole planet. I’ve heard the moon is kind of nice this time of year.” – Sundown “Focus your ADD, Jess.” – Ren “I gotcha, brother. What you’re forecasting is six more plagues coming out of the northwest at maximum velocity with a mild chance of survival. Followed by the world getting swallowed whole in a vat of evil.” – Sundown”

ThinkingWorldShouldYearsKindWholeLastsEvilChanceSpaceFocusNiceHeardPlanetsBrotherMoonSixSurvivalAddComing OutMaximumPlagueVelocitySpace ShuttleForecastingVat
Author:Sherrilyn Kenyon
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“Auto repair, piloting, skiing, perhaps even management: these are skills that yield to application, hard work, and native talent. But forecasting an uncertain future and deciding the best course of action in the face of that future are much less likely to do so. And much of what we've seen so far suggests that a large group of diverse individuals will come up with better and more robust forecasts and make more intelligent decisions than even the most skilled "decision maker."”

HardActionFacesCoursesIndividualDecisionGroupsTalentHard WorkSkillsIntelligentManagementCome UpNativeYieldMakersApplicationDiverseUncertainRobustSkiingForecastsDecision MakersLarge GroupsForecastingUncertain Future
Author:James Surowiecki
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“Science is the key to our future, and if you don’t believe in science, then you’re holding everybody back. And it’s fine if you as an adult want to run around pretending or claiming that you don’t believe in evolution, but if we educate a generation of people who don’t believe in science, that’s a recipe for disaster. We talk about the Internet. That comes from science. Weather forecasting. That comes from science. The main idea in all of biology is evolution. To not teach it to our young people is wrong.”

PeopleIfsWantBelieveIdeasRunningYoungTeachGenerationsKeysFineEvolutionInternetAdultsDon't BelieveDisasterWeatherBiologyPretendingOur FutureEducateRecipesForecasting
Author:Bill Nye
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“I think that intelligent forecasting (company revenues, earnings, etc.) should not seek to predict what will in fact happen in the future. Its purpose ought to be to illuminate the road, to point out obstacles and potential pitfalls and so assist management to tailor events and to bend them in a desired direction. Forecasting should be used as a device to put both problems and opportunities into perspective. It is a management tool, but it can never be a substitute for strategy, nor should it ever be used as the primary basis for portfolio investment decisions.”

ThinkingShouldFactsProblemHappensUsedPurposeOpportunityDecisionCompanyEventsPerspectiveOughtToolsBasesIntelligentManagementStrategyInvestmentObstaclesPrimariesEtcDevicesSubstitutesEarningRevenuePortfoliosTailorsPitfallsForecasting
Author:Peter Cundill
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