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George Friedman

George Friedman Quotes

Political Scientist

George Friedman is a renowned political scientist, born on February 1, 1949. He is best known for founding Stratfor, an intelligence analysis company that provides global political, economic, and military trend analysis.

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Famous George Friedman Quotes

“Presidents and other politicians manage the appearance of things, largely by manipulating the air and hope.”

Leadership Emotion Morale

Book:The Next Decade: Where We've Been . . . and Where We're Going

Source: The Next Decade: Where We've Been . . . and Where We're Going

“While you and I are allowed the luxury of our pain, president isn't. A president must take into account how his citizens feel and he must manage them and lead them, but he must not succumb to personal feelings. His job is to maintain a ruthless sense of proportion while keeping the coldness of his calculation to himself.”

Leadership Emotion Strategy

Book:The Next Decade: Where We've Been . . . and Where We're Going

Source: The Next Decade: Where We've Been . . . and Where We're Going

“... common sense is the one thing that will certainly be wrong.”

Future Common Sense Thought Provoking Wrong Conspiracy 21st Century Conspiracy Theories Forecast

Book:The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

Source: The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

“The idea that the president has the power to craft a new strategy both overstates his power and understates the power of reality crafted by those who came before him. We are all trapped in circumstances into which we were born and choices that were made for us.”

Choices Strategy Options

Author:George Friedman

“The reality is that the American people have no desire for an empire. This is not to say that they don't want the benefits, both economic and strategic. It simply means that they don't want to pay the price. Economically, Americans want the growth potential of open markets but not the pains. Politically, they want to have an enormous influence, but not the resentment of the world. Military, they want to be protected from dangers but not to bear the burdens of long-term strategy.”

Leadership Strategy Statesmanship

Book:The Next Decade: Where We've Been . . . and Where We're Going

Source: The Next Decade: Where We've Been . . . and Where We're Going

“Wars are times of intense technological transformation, because societies invest - sometimes with extensive borrowing - when and where matters of life and death are at stake.”

War Sometimes Matter Transformation Intense Life And Death Stakes Technological Borrowing

Book:The Next Decade: Where We've Been . . . and Where We're Going

Source: The Next Decade: Where We've Been . . . and Where We're Going

“Anger does not make history. Power does. And power may be supplemented by anger, but it derives from more fundamental realities; geography, demographics, technology, and culture.”

May Doe Reality Culture Technology Fundamentals Geography Demographics

Book:The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

Source: The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

“Strategy is something that emerges from reality, while tactics might be chosen.”

Reality Might Strategy Chosen Tactics

Author:George Friedman

“A century is about events. A decade is about people.”

People Century Events Decades

Book:The Next Decade: Where We've Been . . . and Where We're Going

Source: The Next Decade: Where We've Been . . . and Where We're Going

“Europeans have always thought of U.S. presidents as either naive, as they did with Jimmy Carter, or as cowboys, as they did with Lyndon Johnson, and held them in contempt in either case.”

President Cases Contempt Cowboy Naive Johnson Jimmy Carter

Author:George Friedman

“The great presidents never forget the principle of the republic and seek to preserve and enhance them – in the long run– without undermining the needs of the moment. Bad presidents simply do what is expedient, heedless of principles. But the worst presidents are those who adhere to the principles regardless of what the fortunes of the moment demand.”

Needs Long Moments Running President Forget Principles Worst Demand Fortune Preserves Never Forget Republic Long Runs Undermining Great Presidents

Author:George Friedman

“Galvanized people can do careless things. It is in the extreme and emotion-laden moments that distance and coolness are most required. I am tempted to howl in rage. It is not my place to do so. My job is to try to dissect the event, place it in context and try to understand what has happened and why. From that, after the rage cools, plans for action can be made. Rage has its place, but actions must be taken with discipline and thought.”

People Trying Made Moments Action Jobs Can Do Emotion Taken Plans Happened Events Discipline Distance Extremes Rage Tempted Careless Howl Coolness

Author:George Friedman

“Conventional analysis suffers from a profound failure of imagination. It imagines passing clouds to be permanent and is blind to powerful, long-term shifts taking place in full view of the world.”

World Long Suffering Term Imagination Views Powerful Imagine Blind Profound Clouds Passing Passings Permanent Analysis Long Term Conventional

Book:The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

Source: The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

“The kind of president we need has little to do with ideology and more to do with a willingness to wield power to moral ends.”

Needs Kind Littles Ends President Moral Ideology Willingness

Book:The Next Decade: Where We've Been . . . and Where We're Going

Source: The Next Decade: Where We've Been . . . and Where We're Going

“The tragedy of the human condition is that the thing that makes us most human - community - originates in the inhumanity of war.”

Humans War Community Conditions Tragedy Human Condition Inhumanity

Book:The Next Decade: Where We've Been . . . and Where We're Going

Source: The Next Decade: Where We've Been . . . and Where We're Going

“A research division develops marketing material for its deal makers. We have no policy position. If you have a policy position you can't possibly forecast.”

Ifs Deals Policy Position Materials Research Marketing Division Makers Forecasts

Author:George Friedman

“So as soon as you want something to happen you begin skewing the data to support it. Our stuff is invaluable to decision-makers precisely because we have no ax to grind.”

Want Happens Stuff Decision Support Data Makers Want Something Grind Invaluable Decision Makers

Author:George Friedman

“So you go to Brookings, or you go to Heritage or others, they know their position on any subject before they research it. If you go to an investment bank, they know what parts of the world they are going to cover and what parts of the world they are not going to cover depending on client interest. We cover the world without being skewed by that. And that makes it more valuable.”

Ifs Knows World Interest Subjects Position Research Investment Valuable Heritage Clients

Author:George Friedman

“If you go through the list of things that are not possible you're left with a very finite amount of possibilities. The fancy name for this is constraint theory. It's a nonquantitative model, but it's a field of mathematics.”

Ifs Names Left Fields Possibility Theory Amount Models Mathematics Lists Fancy Finite Constraints

Author:George Friedman

“Constraint theory argues a number of things. First, that the impossible has to be identified. Second, that the actor is then constrained by circumstances to act a certain way. For example, should we invade ISIS? Can we invade ISIS? What would it take to invade ISIS? Once you ask that question you discover the price of that option and then you take a look at American politics and see that the country is probably not prepared to invest the 2 to 3 million people that it would take to defeat ISIS and the insurgency afterwards. All right, so that's not going to happen.”

“Constraint theory defines for you what outcomes are possible and what outcomes are impossible. It also eliminates wishful thinking.”

Thinking Impossible Theory Outcomes Constraints Wishful Thinking

Author:George Friedman

“Politicians are enormously smart and rational. They don't have the same interests as businessmen ... But a man rises to the top of the United States. He's clawed his way out of 330 million people. OK. He didn't do that because he was dumb, or lucky, or something like that. He understands power. And he understands how to take it. And he understands how to keep it.”

People Men Way States Interest United Millions United States Politician Lucky Smart Rational Dumb Businessman

Author:George Friedman

“Now if you can recognize and memorize a grandmaster's game, and you have the respect to understand [Zimbabwean president Robert] Mugabe who has survived past anyone's expectations, and make the simple assumption it wasn't an accident, and you understand why he did what he did, now you're ready to predict ... The key to forecasting is to understand both the constraints nations are under and the manner in which the struggle for power shapes leaders.”

Ifs Past Games Nations President Simple Leader Struggle Ready Keys Shapes Expectations Accidents Assumption Survived Constraints Forecasting Mugabe

Author:George Friedman

“I'm not a journalist. So I didn't down and let Assad charm me. I didn't walk away and say "my god he's got an Apple computer and he really likes Beyonce so he must be a liberal."”

Walks Computer Down And Likes Journalist Apples Charm Assad Beyonce

Author:George Friedman

“One of the great weaknesses of journalists is they interview people and they think that's important. They think that they are going to show them their true hand. But more to the point, they're trapped.”

People Thinking Important Shows Hands Weakness Journalist Interviews Trapped

Author:George Friedman

“Assad's mother was a terror. He was terrified of her and she kept saying to him, you're not like your father. That's interesting, but it's useless information. It doesn't tell me anything about how the first and second armored brigades are going to operate.”

Firsts Mother Father Interesting Information Like You Terror Useless Terrified Assad Useless Information

Author:George Friedman

“With the decline of American interests in the outcome of this region, there is no glue holding it together. And the countries in this region are invented ... The last guarantor of the region's borders was the United States, and the US has basically said "the hell with it." What you're really having is the collapse of nation-states because they're not nations. They're only states.”

Said Country States Together Lasts Nations Interest United United States Hell Borders Outcomes Regions Decline Collapse Glue

Author:George Friedman

“What is American strategy first of all? So American strategy is to command the seas, right? The foundation of our power is sea control. Nobody can invade us, but we can invade them.”

Firsts Sea Foundation Strategy Command

Author:George Friedman

“What is the great fear of the United States? That an Eastern power will build a navy to challenge us. How do you keep them from doing that? Keep them at each other's throats so they don't have any money to do this. This is why we fought the First World War, the Second World War, and the Cold War.”

World Firsts War States Challenges United United States Cold War Of The Worlds Throat Cold War Eastern Navy Second World War First World War

Author:George Friedman

“The first thing you have to do is understand what success looks like. And to understand what success looks like you have to understand the intent. If you understand that intent is to make sure the sea lines are secure, then suddenly bombing Kosovo makes sense, because you don't want Serbia to reemerge as a major power.”

Ifs Want Firsts Looks Lines Sea Like You Majors Secure Make Sense Bombing Serbia Kosovo

Author:George Friedman

“Well what are our geopolitical objectives? First, that North America be peaceful, prosperous, dominated by the United States. Second, that no nation be able to approach the United States militarily ... Those are the goals. It's very simple. We achieve that by making certain that all conflict takes place in the Eastern Hemisphere so we don't have conflict here.”

Firsts Wells States Able America Certain Nations Goal Simple United United States Achieve Conflict Approach Objectives Peaceful Eastern Prosperous North America Hemisphere Geopolitical

Author:George Friedman

“Success looks like you sitting here pretty confident that an armed brigade isn't going to come pouring in here and blow your head off. Which I don't think is your major concern. Therefore, the United States' foreign policy is successful.”

Thinking Looks States United United States Successful Policy Like You Majors Sitting Concern Blow Foreign Policy Pouring

Author:George Friedman

“When I get asked the question, "Do I want to loan you money?" I want to know, how much do you earn? How much do you owe? What is your net worth? When people talk about countries for some reason they only ask how much did you earn and what's your debt?”

People Knows Want Country Reason Asks Know How Debt Loan Net Worth

Author:George Friedman

“The United State has a net worth against which our debt is a joke ... we wrote in 2008 the United States is going to come out of this recession fast. The Europeans are going to fragment. The Chinese are going to be cremated. Why could we come out of it? Why has all economic theory been proven wrong? Because we're rich and we could afford it.”

States United United States Rich Economic Theory Jokes Debt Chinese Proven Fragments Recessions Net Worth Economic Theory Proven Wrong

Author:George Friedman

“There is no difference in a country between military, economic, and political affairs. It's useful for Business Insider to divide things that way. That's useful for a college program. But a country is a country. How do you understand China's economy without China's army? If you take these all into account you're ready to explain a question like, "How come the US doesn't have a debt problem?"”

Ifs Way Country Problem Political Differences Economy Economic Military College Ready Program Accounts Army Affair China Debt Divides Insiders

Author:George Friedman

“Because the US has control of the sea. Because the US has built up its wealth. Because the US is the only country in the world really not to have a war fought on its territory since the time of the Civil War ... Therefore we can afford mistakes that would kill other countries. And therefore we can take risks that they can't ... the core answer to why the United States is like this is we didn't fight World War I and World War II and the Cold War here.”

“Italy is the fourth-largest economy in Europe and the eighth-largest economy in the world, and its banking system is collapsing. And Germany is desperate. It must maintain its standard of living. It can only do that with exports and Deutsche Bank is very exposed to Italian debt. But so is the rest of Europe.”

World Economy Standards Europe Debt Germany Desperate Italian Exposed Fourth Banking Standards Of Living Banking System

Author:George Friedman

“Germany is the new pig. Germany depends on exports and its markets are drying up. When the Germans start getting 10% unemployment, 15% unemployment, which is the real variable, how are they going to handle it?”

Real Depends Handle Germany Pigs Unemployment Variables

Author:George Friedman

“Italy spills over to everything. Italy is a huge banking system. It has been the major banking system in Eastern Europe. It's worked with Austria's banking system. There's all sorts of interplays there. So it's not the PIIGS one should worry about. Germany hasn't even begun falling yet. And when Germany falls, and it will, that's when the panic begins to set in.”

Should Has Beens Fall Worry Huge Majors Europe Germany Panic Eastern Banking Spills Eastern Europe Banking System Austria

Author:George Friedman

“Constraint theory asks: What is the price for doing this? Now one way around constraint theory is declaring your enemy crazy. Crazy and stupid are not concepts used in forecasting. When people say they're really stupid or they're crazy, that's laziness. That means I don't want to think through their position or about what they're really going to do.”

People Thinking Way Want Mean Used Asks Enemy Crazy Stupid Position Theory Concepts One Way Laziness Constraints Declaring Really Stupid Forecasting

Author:George Friedman

“There has never been a century that has not had a systemic war - a systemic war, meaning when the entire system convulses. From the Seven Years' War in Europe to the Napoleonic Wars of the 19th century to the World Wars, every century has one.”

World Years War Century Europe Seven War Of The Worlds Seven Years 19th Century Napoleonic

Author:George Friedman

“When you have the countries like Germany, China, and Russia decline, and be replaced by others, that's when systemic wars start. That's when it gets dangerous, because they haven't yet reached a balance. So Germany united in 1871 and all hell broke loose. Japan rose in the early 20th century, and then you had chaos. So we're looking at a systemic shift. Be ready for war.”

War Country United Hell Century Dangerous Havens Ready Balance Rose Chaos China Russia Broke Germany Japan Decline Replaced 20th Century

Author:George Friedman

“Well the most likely emerging countries are Japan, Turkey, and Poland. So I would say Eastern Europe, the Middle East and a maritime war by Japan with the United States enjoying its own pleasures.”

Wells War Country States Enjoy Pleasure United United States Middle Europe East Japan Middle East Eastern Turkeys Emerging Poland Eastern Europe Maritime

Author:George Friedman

“But every time new powers emerge they have to find their balance. New powers are emerging, old powers are declining. It's not that process that's dangerous, it's the emerging position that's dangerous.”

Process Dangerous Position Balance Emerging

Author:George Friedman

“I think the personal and psychological aspects of war remain the same. War is about killing and dying. A man or woman stands at the post and there is a very real possibility of dying in the next five minutes. Whether he dies or not depends partly on him and partly on luck, and yet he must continue to function.”

Thinking Men War Real Dies Next Five Minutes Dying Possibility Depends Aspect Function Luck Killing Psychological Posts Five Minutes

Author:George Friedman

“War is an extraordinary condition to be in - to be, for example, in the combat information center of a warship [and behaving] as though you were merely processing credit card applications. [Instead,] the information you're processing is that an incoming missile is 15 kilometers away, now 10 kilometers away, now 5 kilometers. You have to separate yourself psychologically from the fact that your mortal existence may well end. That is the ancient reality of war.”

“The important thing in war is that there is an element of rage, but you must remain very distant from it.”

Important War Elements Important Things Rage

Author:George Friedman

“If you lose yourself to rage in the complexity of battle, you are going to be lost.”

Ifs Lost Loses Battle Rage Complexity Losing Yourself

Author:George Friedman

“The warrior must continue to make decisions in the face of extreme circumstances. He cannot afford to get angry or frightened.”

Faces Decision Circumstances Angry Extremes Warrior Frightened

Author:George Friedman

“There is a radical and unprecedented shift [in war] that is part of the general transformation of civilization. First, understand that the past 150 years of warfare are totally unprecedented in that we introduced a breathtakingly inefficient technology: guns. In the First World War, and this is not an exaggeration, it took 10,000 rounds of ammunition to kill one person. Any given shot had a one in 10,000 probability of ending someone's life.”

About the Author

Born: February 1, 1949
Known for: Political Scientist
Quotes: 74

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Books & Sources

The Next Decade: Where We've Been . . . and Where We're GoingRelated source material

The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st CenturyRelated source material

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