“A research division develops marketing material for its deal makers. We have no policy position. If you have a policy position you can't possibly forecast.” IfsDealsPolicyPositionMaterialsResearchMarketingDivisionMakersForecasts Author:George Friedman
“So you go to Brookings, or you go to Heritage or others, they know their position on any subject before they research it. If you go to an investment bank, they know what parts of the world they are going to cover and what parts of the world they are not going to cover depending on client interest. We cover the world without being skewed by that. And that makes it more valuable.” IfsKnowsWorldInterestSubjectsPositionResearchInvestmentValuableHeritageClients Author:George Friedman
“If you go through the list of things that are not possible you're left with a very finite amount of possibilities. The fancy name for this is constraint theory. It's a nonquantitative model, but it's a field of mathematics.” IfsNamesLeftFieldsPossibilityTheoryAmountModelsMathematicsListsFancyFiniteConstraints Author:George Friedman
“Now if you can recognize and memorize a grandmaster's game, and you have the respect to understand [Zimbabwean president Robert] Mugabe who has survived past anyone's expectations, and make the simple assumption it wasn't an accident, and you understand why he did what he did, now you're ready to predict ... The key to forecasting is to understand both the constraints nations are under and the manner in which the struggle for power shapes leaders.” IfsPastGamesNationsPresidentSimpleLeaderStruggleReadyKeysShapesExpectationsAccidentsAssumptionSurvivedConstraintsForecastingMugabe Author:George Friedman
“The first thing you have to do is understand what success looks like. And to understand what success looks like you have to understand the intent. If you understand that intent is to make sure the sea lines are secure, then suddenly bombing Kosovo makes sense, because you don't want Serbia to reemerge as a major power.” IfsWantFirstsLooksLinesSeaLike YouMajorsSecureMake SenseBombingSerbiaKosovo Author:George Friedman
“There is no difference in a country between military, economic, and political affairs. It's useful for Business Insider to divide things that way. That's useful for a college program. But a country is a country. How do you understand China's economy without China's army? If you take these all into account you're ready to explain a question like, "How come the US doesn't have a debt problem?"” IfsWayCountryProblemPoliticalDifferencesEconomyEconomicMilitaryCollegeReadyProgramAccountsArmyAffairChinaDebtDividesInsiders Author:George Friedman
“If you lose yourself to rage in the complexity of battle, you are going to be lost.” IfsLostLosesBattleRageComplexityLosing Yourself Author:George Friedman
“I cannot understand how something as ubiquitous as war can simply be dismissed as pathological. It is not clear to me that it is an unspeakable evil. If it is, I need proof of it.” IfsNeedsWarEvilClearProofUnspeakable Author:George Friedman
“One definition of the wicked is that they will resort to whatever means are necessary to achieve their ends. Therefore, if those who oppose wickedness don't learn the art of war, they will be helpless.” IfsMeanArtWarEndsAchieveDefinitionsWickedHelplessWickednessResortsArt Of War Author:George Friedman
