“If you go through the list of things that are not possible you're left with a very finite amount of possibilities. The fancy name for this is constraint theory. It's a nonquantitative model, but it's a field of mathematics.” IfsNamesLeftFieldsPossibilityTheoryAmountModelsMathematicsListsFancyFiniteConstraints Author:George Friedman
“Constraint theory argues a number of things. First, that the impossible has to be identified. Second, that the actor is then constrained by circumstances to act a certain way. For example, should we invade ISIS? Can we invade ISIS? What would it take to invade ISIS? Once you ask that question you discover the price of that option and then you take a look at American politics and see that the country is probably not prepared to invest the 2 to 3 million people that it would take to defeat ISIS and the insurgency afterwards. All right, so that's not going to happen.” PeopleWayShouldFirstsLooksCountryHappensCertainActorsAsksNumbersMillionsImpossibleExampleTheoryCircumstancesPreparedDefeatArguingAmerican PoliticsIsisConstraintsInsurgency Author:George Friedman
“Constraint theory defines for you what outcomes are possible and what outcomes are impossible. It also eliminates wishful thinking.” ThinkingImpossibleTheoryOutcomesConstraintsWishful Thinking Author:George Friedman
“Now if you can recognize and memorize a grandmaster's game, and you have the respect to understand [Zimbabwean president Robert] Mugabe who has survived past anyone's expectations, and make the simple assumption it wasn't an accident, and you understand why he did what he did, now you're ready to predict ... The key to forecasting is to understand both the constraints nations are under and the manner in which the struggle for power shapes leaders.” IfsPastGamesNationsPresidentSimpleLeaderStruggleReadyKeysShapesExpectationsAccidentsAssumptionSurvivedConstraintsForecastingMugabe Author:George Friedman
“Constraint theory asks: What is the price for doing this? Now one way around constraint theory is declaring your enemy crazy. Crazy and stupid are not concepts used in forecasting. When people say they're really stupid or they're crazy, that's laziness. That means I don't want to think through their position or about what they're really going to do.” PeopleThinkingWayWantMeanUsedAsksEnemyCrazyStupidPositionTheoryConceptsOne WayLazinessConstraintsDeclaringReally StupidForecasting Author:George Friedman
