“If you go through the list of things that are not possible you're left with a very finite amount of possibilities. The fancy name for this is constraint theory. It's a nonquantitative model, but it's a field of mathematics.” IfsNamesLeftFieldsPossibilityTheoryAmountModelsMathematicsListsFancyFiniteConstraints Author:George Friedman
“Constraint theory argues a number of things. First, that the impossible has to be identified. Second, that the actor is then constrained by circumstances to act a certain way. For example, should we invade ISIS? Can we invade ISIS? What would it take to invade ISIS? Once you ask that question you discover the price of that option and then you take a look at American politics and see that the country is probably not prepared to invest the 2 to 3 million people that it would take to defeat ISIS and the insurgency afterwards. All right, so that's not going to happen.” PeopleWayShouldFirstsLooksCountryHappensCertainActorsAsksNumbersMillionsImpossibleExampleTheoryCircumstancesPreparedDefeatArguingAmerican PoliticsIsisConstraintsInsurgency Author:George Friedman
“Constraint theory defines for you what outcomes are possible and what outcomes are impossible. It also eliminates wishful thinking.” ThinkingImpossibleTheoryOutcomesConstraintsWishful Thinking Author:George Friedman
“The United State has a net worth against which our debt is a joke ... we wrote in 2008 the United States is going to come out of this recession fast. The Europeans are going to fragment. The Chinese are going to be cremated. Why could we come out of it? Why has all economic theory been proven wrong? Because we're rich and we could afford it.” StatesUnitedUnited StatesRichEconomicTheoryJokesDebtChineseProvenFragmentsRecessionsNet WorthEconomic TheoryProven Wrong Author:George Friedman
“Constraint theory asks: What is the price for doing this? Now one way around constraint theory is declaring your enemy crazy. Crazy and stupid are not concepts used in forecasting. When people say they're really stupid or they're crazy, that's laziness. That means I don't want to think through their position or about what they're really going to do.” PeopleThinkingWayWantMeanUsedAsksEnemyCrazyStupidPositionTheoryConceptsOne WayLazinessConstraintsDeclaringReally StupidForecasting Author:George Friedman
“War to me is very much like sex. You can develop a theory that says sex is primarily for the exchange of genetic material, or that it's a celebration of life, or you can make up 50,000 theories about why human beings have sex, all of which are in some sense true, all of which by themselves miss the point. Because the answer is extraordinarily complex. It may be for fun, it may be for reproduction, for financial reasons, any number of things.” HumansMayWarReasonFunSexHuman BeingsAnswersNumbersMissingMaterialsTheoryComplexesFinancialCelebrationReproductionCelebration Of Life Author:George Friedman
“Every theory I've seen that contains an explanation of war fails. I think they fail for the same reason that explanations of sex fail. War derives from things so deep and so complex, I'm thoroughly baffled by it at the end of the day.” ThinkingWarEndsReasonSexFailingTheoryComplexesExplanationThe End Of The DayBaffled Author:George Friedman
