“A century is about events. A decade is about people.” PeopleCenturyEventsDecades Book:The Next Decade: Where We've Been . . . and Where We're Going Source: The Next Decade: Where We've Been . . . and Where We're Going
“Galvanized people can do careless things. It is in the extreme and emotion-laden moments that distance and coolness are most required. I am tempted to howl in rage. It is not my place to do so. My job is to try to dissect the event, place it in context and try to understand what has happened and why. From that, after the rage cools, plans for action can be made. Rage has its place, but actions must be taken with discipline and thought.” PeopleTryingMadeMomentsActionJobsCan DoEmotionTakenPlansHappenedEventsDisciplineDistanceExtremesRageTemptedCarelessHowlCoolness Author:George Friedman
“Constraint theory argues a number of things. First, that the impossible has to be identified. Second, that the actor is then constrained by circumstances to act a certain way. For example, should we invade ISIS? Can we invade ISIS? What would it take to invade ISIS? Once you ask that question you discover the price of that option and then you take a look at American politics and see that the country is probably not prepared to invest the 2 to 3 million people that it would take to defeat ISIS and the insurgency afterwards. All right, so that's not going to happen.” PeopleWayShouldFirstsLooksCountryHappensCertainActorsAsksNumbersMillionsImpossibleExampleTheoryCircumstancesPreparedDefeatArguingAmerican PoliticsIsisConstraintsInsurgency Author:George Friedman
“Politicians are enormously smart and rational. They don't have the same interests as businessmen ... But a man rises to the top of the United States. He's clawed his way out of 330 million people. OK. He didn't do that because he was dumb, or lucky, or something like that. He understands power. And he understands how to take it. And he understands how to keep it.” PeopleMenWayStatesInterestUnitedMillionsUnited StatesPoliticianLuckySmartRationalDumbBusinessman Author:George Friedman
“One of the great weaknesses of journalists is they interview people and they think that's important. They think that they are going to show them their true hand. But more to the point, they're trapped.” PeopleThinkingImportantShowsHandsWeaknessJournalistInterviewsTrapped Author:George Friedman
“When I get asked the question, "Do I want to loan you money?" I want to know, how much do you earn? How much do you owe? What is your net worth? When people talk about countries for some reason they only ask how much did you earn and what's your debt?” PeopleKnowsWantCountryReasonAsksKnow HowDebtLoanNet Worth Author:George Friedman
“Constraint theory asks: What is the price for doing this? Now one way around constraint theory is declaring your enemy crazy. Crazy and stupid are not concepts used in forecasting. When people say they're really stupid or they're crazy, that's laziness. That means I don't want to think through their position or about what they're really going to do.” PeopleThinkingWayWantMeanUsedAsksEnemyCrazyStupidPositionTheoryConceptsOne WayLazinessConstraintsDeclaringReally StupidForecasting Author:George Friedman
