“There is no difference in a country between military, economic, and political affairs. It's useful for Business Insider to divide things that way. That's useful for a college program. But a country is a country. How do you understand China's economy without China's army? If you take these all into account you're ready to explain a question like, "How come the US doesn't have a debt problem?"” IfsWayCountryProblemPoliticalDifferencesEconomyEconomicMilitaryCollegeReadyProgramAccountsArmyAffairChinaDebtDividesInsiders Author:George Friedman
“When you have the countries like Germany, China, and Russia decline, and be replaced by others, that's when systemic wars start. That's when it gets dangerous, because they haven't yet reached a balance. So Germany united in 1871 and all hell broke loose. Japan rose in the early 20th century, and then you had chaos. So we're looking at a systemic shift. Be ready for war.” WarCountryUnitedHellCenturyDangerousHavensReadyBalanceRoseChaosChinaRussiaBrokeGermanyJapanDeclineReplaced20th Century Author:George Friedman
“While certain coastal cities have become very prosperous, the rest of China has a per capita income of $200 a year. The coast wants to have nothing to do with the interior; it wants to work with Tokyo and New York. This is an old story in China. It is why Mao succeeded in 1927. He wanted [coastal] Shanghai to throw the foreigners out, but Shanghai was doing too well financially [to expel foreigners]. So Mao went to the interior and raised a peasant army. He came back to Shanghai and sealed off the country.” WantYearsWellsCountryStoriesWantedCertainCitiesNew YorkArmyRaisedChinaIncomeCoastInteriorsProsperousPeasantsForeignersTokyoMaoCoastalShanghai Author:George Friedman
“The Chinese central government will slowly and steadily lose authority while regional armies [gain power]. The Western powers are going to take sides to protect their investments - they have put billions of dollars into Shanghai. Their fear is that [these investments] are going to be expropriated by a warlord from the interior who will sweep down on Shanghai. They will try to form alliances with warlords to protect their concessions, and there will be a huge flow of weapons into China.” TryingGovernmentFormSidesLosesHugeProtectAuthorityWeaponsGainsFlowArmyDollarsInvestmentWesternChinaBillionsChineseInteriorsAlliancesConcessionsShanghaiCentral GovernmentWarlords Author:George Friedman
“One of the great famines in human history took place during the Chinese Cultural Revolution. [At the same time] Western journalists were reporting how marvelously Chinese society was working. We know so little [about what happens in China].” KnowsHumansLittlesHappensRevolutionWesternChinaChineseJournalistHuman HistoryFamine Author:George Friedman
