“So as soon as you want something to happen you begin skewing the data to support it. Our stuff is invaluable to decision-makers precisely because we have no ax to grind.” WantHappensStuffDecisionSupportDataMakersWant SomethingGrindInvaluableDecision Makers Author:George Friedman
“The first thing you have to do is understand what success looks like. And to understand what success looks like you have to understand the intent. If you understand that intent is to make sure the sea lines are secure, then suddenly bombing Kosovo makes sense, because you don't want Serbia to reemerge as a major power.” IfsWantFirstsLooksLinesSeaLike YouMajorsSecureMake SenseBombingSerbiaKosovo Author:George Friedman
“When I get asked the question, "Do I want to loan you money?" I want to know, how much do you earn? How much do you owe? What is your net worth? When people talk about countries for some reason they only ask how much did you earn and what's your debt?” PeopleKnowsWantCountryReasonAsksKnow HowDebtLoanNet Worth Author:George Friedman
“Constraint theory asks: What is the price for doing this? Now one way around constraint theory is declaring your enemy crazy. Crazy and stupid are not concepts used in forecasting. When people say they're really stupid or they're crazy, that's laziness. That means I don't want to think through their position or about what they're really going to do.” PeopleThinkingWayWantMeanUsedAsksEnemyCrazyStupidPositionTheoryConceptsOne WayLazinessConstraintsDeclaringReally StupidForecasting Author:George Friedman
“While certain coastal cities have become very prosperous, the rest of China has a per capita income of $200 a year. The coast wants to have nothing to do with the interior; it wants to work with Tokyo and New York. This is an old story in China. It is why Mao succeeded in 1927. He wanted [coastal] Shanghai to throw the foreigners out, but Shanghai was doing too well financially [to expel foreigners]. So Mao went to the interior and raised a peasant army. He came back to Shanghai and sealed off the country.” WantYearsWellsCountryStoriesWantedCertainCitiesNew YorkArmyRaisedChinaIncomeCoastInteriorsProsperousPeasantsForeignersTokyoMaoCoastalShanghai Author:George Friedman
