“Constraint theory argues a number of things. First, that the impossible has to be identified. Second, that the actor is then constrained by circumstances to act a certain way. For example, should we invade ISIS? Can we invade ISIS? What would it take to invade ISIS? Once you ask that question you discover the price of that option and then you take a look at American politics and see that the country is probably not prepared to invest the 2 to 3 million people that it would take to defeat ISIS and the insurgency afterwards. All right, so that's not going to happen.” PeopleWayShouldFirstsLooksCountryHappensCertainActorsAsksNumbersMillionsImpossibleExampleTheoryCircumstancesPreparedDefeatArguingAmerican PoliticsIsisConstraintsInsurgency Author:George Friedman
“Assad's mother was a terror. He was terrified of her and she kept saying to him, you're not like your father. That's interesting, but it's useless information. It doesn't tell me anything about how the first and second armored brigades are going to operate.” FirstsMotherFatherInterestingInformationLike YouTerrorUselessTerrifiedAssadUseless Information Author:George Friedman
“What is American strategy first of all? So American strategy is to command the seas, right? The foundation of our power is sea control. Nobody can invade us, but we can invade them.” FirstsSeaFoundationStrategyCommand Author:George Friedman
“What is the great fear of the United States? That an Eastern power will build a navy to challenge us. How do you keep them from doing that? Keep them at each other's throats so they don't have any money to do this. This is why we fought the First World War, the Second World War, and the Cold War.” WorldFirstsWarStatesChallengesUnitedUnited StatesColdWar Of The WorldsThroatCold WarEasternNavySecond World WarFirst World War Author:George Friedman
“The first thing you have to do is understand what success looks like. And to understand what success looks like you have to understand the intent. If you understand that intent is to make sure the sea lines are secure, then suddenly bombing Kosovo makes sense, because you don't want Serbia to reemerge as a major power.” IfsWantFirstsLooksLinesSeaLike YouMajorsSecureMake SenseBombingSerbiaKosovo Author:George Friedman
“Well what are our geopolitical objectives? First, that North America be peaceful, prosperous, dominated by the United States. Second, that no nation be able to approach the United States militarily ... Those are the goals. It's very simple. We achieve that by making certain that all conflict takes place in the Eastern Hemisphere so we don't have conflict here.” FirstsWellsStatesAbleAmericaCertainNationsGoalSimpleUnitedUnited StatesAchieveConflictApproachObjectivesPeacefulEasternProsperousNorth AmericaHemisphereGeopolitical Author:George Friedman
“There is a radical and unprecedented shift [in war] that is part of the general transformation of civilization. First, understand that the past 150 years of warfare are totally unprecedented in that we introduced a breathtakingly inefficient technology: guns. In the First World War, and this is not an exaggeration, it took 10,000 rounds of ammunition to kill one person. Any given shot had a one in 10,000 probability of ending someone's life.” WorldYearsFirstsPersonsWarPastGivenTechnologyCivilizationGunShotsTransformationRoundsRadicalWar Of The WorldsWarfareProbabilityExaggerationUnprecedentedAmmunitionFirst World War Author:George Friedman
