“Constraint theory argues a number of things. First, that the impossible has to be identified. Second, that the actor is then constrained by circumstances to act a certain way. For example, should we invade ISIS? Can we invade ISIS? What would it take to invade ISIS? Once you ask that question you discover the price of that option and then you take a look at American politics and see that the country is probably not prepared to invest the 2 to 3 million people that it would take to defeat ISIS and the insurgency afterwards. All right, so that's not going to happen.” PeopleWayShouldFirstsLooksCountryHappensCertainActorsAsksNumbersMillionsImpossibleExampleTheoryCircumstancesPreparedDefeatArguingAmerican PoliticsIsisConstraintsInsurgency Author:George Friedman
“Politicians are enormously smart and rational. They don't have the same interests as businessmen ... But a man rises to the top of the United States. He's clawed his way out of 330 million people. OK. He didn't do that because he was dumb, or lucky, or something like that. He understands power. And he understands how to take it. And he understands how to keep it.” PeopleMenWayStatesInterestUnitedMillionsUnited StatesPoliticianLuckySmartRationalDumbBusinessman Author:George Friedman
“There is no difference in a country between military, economic, and political affairs. It's useful for Business Insider to divide things that way. That's useful for a college program. But a country is a country. How do you understand China's economy without China's army? If you take these all into account you're ready to explain a question like, "How come the US doesn't have a debt problem?"” IfsWayCountryProblemPoliticalDifferencesEconomyEconomicMilitaryCollegeReadyProgramAccountsArmyAffairChinaDebtDividesInsiders Author:George Friedman
“Constraint theory asks: What is the price for doing this? Now one way around constraint theory is declaring your enemy crazy. Crazy and stupid are not concepts used in forecasting. When people say they're really stupid or they're crazy, that's laziness. That means I don't want to think through their position or about what they're really going to do.” PeopleThinkingWayWantMeanUsedAsksEnemyCrazyStupidPositionTheoryConceptsOne WayLazinessConstraintsDeclaringReally StupidForecasting Author:George Friedman
“The British bombed German cities [during World War II] to keep the workers awake at night. So instead of dropping one bomb, we sent a thousand planes and, yes, we took out the factory sometimes, but we also took out the city. It reached the point where we wanted more efficient ways to destroy a city. The result was nuclear weapons.” WorldWayWarSometimesWantedNightResultsCitiesThousandWeaponsWorkersBritishNuclearPlanesAwakeWar Of The WorldsBombsWorld War IiFactoriesEfficientWorld War INuclear WeaponsDroppingAwake At Night Author:George Friedman
“In a way, we can have a much easier discussion about the future of technology than we can about why a young man kills another man in a war.” MenWayWarYoungTechnologyEasierDiscussionYoung ManAnother Man Author:George Friedman
