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Quote by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a renowned author, scholar, and thinker whose unique perspective and profound insights have had a wide-reaching impact in fields such as finance, statistics, and philosophy. He is best known for his books 'The Black Swan' and 'Fooled by Randomness', which have explored the nature of uncertainty, risk, and probability theory. more

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“Expert estimates of probability are often off by factors of hundreds or thousands. [...] I used to be annoyed when the margin of error was high in a forecasting model that I might put together. Now I view it as perhaps the single most important piece of information that a forecaster provides. When we publish a forecast on FiveThirtyEight, I go to great lengths to document the uncertainty attached to it, even if the uncertainty is sufficiently large that the forecast won't make for punchy headlines.”