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Quote by Seth Klarman

“Rather, risk is a perception in each investor's mind that results from analysis of the probability and amount of potential loss from an investment. If an exploratory oil well proves to be a dry hole, it is called risky. If a bond defaults or a stock plunges in price, they are called risky. But if the well is a gusher, the bond matures on schedule, and the stock rallies strongly, can we say they weren't risky when the investment after it is concluded than was known when it was made.”

Quote by Seth Klarman

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Seth Klarman
Seth Klarman

Seth Klarman is an American author and value investor, serving as the president of The Baupost Group, a Boston-based investment firm. He is renowned for his extensive contributions to the field of value investing and has authored several books on the subject, most notably 'Margin of Safety: Risk-Averse Investing Strategies for the Thoughtful Investor'. more

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Author:Seth Klarman
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“I have no use whatsoever for projections or forecasts. They create an illusion of apparent precision. The more meticulous they are, the more concerned you should be. We never look at projections, but we care very much about, and look very deeply at, track records. If a company has a lousy track record, but a very bright future, we will miss the opportunity.”

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“Projections are put together by people who have an interest in a particular outcome, have a subconscious bias, and its apparent precision makes it fallacious. They remind me of Mark Twain's saying, 'A mine is a hole in the ground owned by a liar.' Projections in America are often a lie, although not an intentional one, but the worst kind because the forecaster often believes them himself.”

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Book:Pragmatism as a Principle and Method of Right Thinking: The 1903 Harvard Lectures on Pragmatism
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