“You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.”
Quote by Nate Silver
Author
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“Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.”
“Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.”
“Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.”
“Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.”
Source: The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
“Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken.”
“I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.”
“I love South American food, and I haven't really been down there. I really need a vacation.”
“I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.”
