“The imagined suppression of uncertainty is nothing more than a mirage… The future is unknown, and we all constantly make assumptions. But to rely on assumptions as if they were certainty is irresponsible.”
Source: The Definitive Guide to Thriving on Disruption: Volume II - Essential Frameworks for Disruption and Uncertainty
“This need for humans to enhance their capabilities to become AAA is relevant in the context of machines learning faster, with increasingly higher-level human functions.”
Source: The Definitive Guide to Thriving on Disruption: Volume I - Reframing and Navigating Disruption
“To remain relevant in the age of AI, we must actively build antifragile foundations that are resilient under stress, and strengthen with shocks.”
Source: Disrupt With Impact: Achieve Business Success in an Unpredictable World
“This asymmetry means that the fragile suffers a disproportionate amount of downside from shocks.”
Source: Disrupt With Impact: Achieve Business Success in an Unpredictable World
“Decentralized systems can offer more resilience and antifragility, as this single point of failure does not exist.”
Source: Disrupt With Impact: Achieve Business Success in an Unpredictable World
“Developing antifragility means focusing on the amplitude of potential consequences, not the probability.”
Source: Disrupt With Impact: Achieve Business Success in an Unpredictable World
“Resilience is a prerequisite to antifragility.”
Source: Disrupt With Impact: Achieve Business Success in an Unpredictable World
“Faith is the very first thing you should pack in a hope chest.”
“Many man-made systems, including ICT systems, have positive feedback loops that cause certain local events to propagate and create extreme global behaviors. The extreme behaviors, especially unplanned downtime, become more common than stakeholders can accept. These outliers are modeled by probability distributions with thick tails. Unfortunately, classical methods for risk analysis based on predictions of future events tend to underestimate or ignore extreme global behaviors in complex adaptive ICT systems, even though these events may very well dominate the overall risk to stakeholders.”
Source: Anti-fragile ICT Systems
“... we should develop and operate so-called anti-fragile systems characterized by two important properties: First, an anti-fragile ICT system fails early with a small, local impact to break positive feedback loops before they can create extreme global behaviors. Second, the prevention of extreme global behaviors allows stakeholders to learn from small-impact incidents about new vulnerabilities caused by changes in the system and its environment. The vulnerabilities can then be mitigated to avoid future extreme behaviors.”
Source: Anti-fragile ICT Systems