“It is ludicrous to believe that asset bubbles can only be recognized in hindsight,” he wrote. “There are specific identifiers that are entirely recognizable during the bubble’s inflation. One hallmark of mania is the rapid rise in the incidence and complexity of fraud…. The FBI reports mortgage-related fraud is up fivefold since 2000.” Bad behavior was no longer on the fringes of an otherwise sound economy; it was its central feature.” EconomyFraudRecessionSubprime Mortgage LoansAsset Bubble Book:The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine Source: The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine
“Back in July 2003, he’d written them a long essay on the causes and consequences of what he took to be a likely housing crash: “Alan Greenspan assures us that home prices are not prone to bubbles—or major deflations—on any national scale,” he’d said. “This is ridiculous, of course…. In 1933, during the fourth year of the Great Depression, the United States found itself in the midst of a housing crisis that put housing starts at 10% of the level of 1925. Roughly half of all mortgage debt was in default. During the 1930s, housing prices collapsed nationwide by roughly 80%.” Wall StreetRecessionSubprime Mortgage LoansAlan GreenspanAsset Bubble Book:The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine Source: The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine