“This chapter is about the hurdles and best practices in idea selection. To figure out how we can make fewer bad bets, I sought out skilled forecasters who have learned to avoid the risks of false positives and false negatives.” RiskIdeaFalseBetForecastFalse NegativeFalse Positive Book:Originals: How Non-Conformists Move the World Source: Originals: How Non-Conformists Move the World