“Cumulative errors depend largely on the big surprises, the big opportunities. Not only do economic, financial, and political predictors miss them, but they are quite ashamed to say anything outlandish to their clients and yet events, it turns out, are almost always outlandish.” BigsPoliticalTurnsOpportunityEconomicMissingEventsDependsErrorsSurpriseFinancialAshamedClientsSay AnythingCumulativeOutlandishBig Surprises Book:The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Fragility Source: The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Fragility
“Our approach to existential risks cannot be one of trial-and-error. There is no opportunity to learn from errors. The reactive approach - see what happens, limit damages, and learn from experience - is unworkable. Rather, we must take a proactive approach. This requires foresight to anticipate new types of threats and a willingness to take decisive preventive action and to bear the costs (moral and economic) of such actions.” HappensActionOpportunityMoralRiskEconomicTypeBearsCostLimitsApproachThreatErrorsTrialsDamageWillingnessExistentialAnticipateForesightProactiveLearning ExperienceTrial And ErrorOpportunities To Learn Author:Nick Bostrom
“There is a lot of difference between tempting and leading into error. God tempts but does not lead into error. To tempt is to provide opportunities for us to do certain things if we do not love God, but putting us under no necessity to do so. To lead into error is to compel a man necessarily to conclude and follow a falsehood.” IfsMenDoeCertainOpportunityDifferencesErrorsTemptationGod LoveFalsehoodTempting Author:Blaise Pascal