“Perhaps the fundamental precept of probabilistic analysis is the exhortation to take a bird’s-eye, distributional view of the situation under analysis (e.g., a dice game, the traffic in Boulder, crimes in Pittsburgh, the situation with that troublesome knee) and to define a sample space of all the possible events and their logical, set membership interrelations. This step is exactly where rational analysis and judgments based on availability, similarity, and scenario construction diverge: When we judge intuitively, the mind is drawn to a limited, systematically skewed subset of the possible events. In the case of scenario construction, for example, we are often caught in our detailed scenario—focused on just one preposterously specific outcome path.” IntuitionDecision MakingStatisticsProbabilityRational ThinkingBig PictureBiasesCognitive BiasesProbabilistic Analysis Book:Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgement and Decision Making Source: Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgement and Decision Making