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Annie Duke

Annie Duke Quotes

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Famous Annie Duke Quotes

“There is always opportunity cost in choosing one path over others. The betting elements of decisions—choice, probability, risk, etc.—are more obvious in some situations than others. Investments are clearly bets. A decision about a stock (buy, don’t buy, sell, hold, not to mention esoteric investment options) involves a choice about the best use of financial resources. Incomplete information and factors outside of our control make all our investment choices uncertain. We evaluate what we can, figure out what we think will maximize our investment money, and execute. Deciding not to invest or not to sell a stock, likewise, is a bet. These are the same decisions I make during a hand of poker: fold, check, call, bet, or raise.”

DecisionPathChoiceControlUncertainProbabilityInvestMaximizeBetOpportunity Cost
Book:Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
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“If you had a navigation app for your goals and decisions, it would work like a premortem and a backcast and its output would look like the Decision Exploration Table. You’ve identified two broad categories of future events (those within and outside your control) that could decrease or increase your chances of failure or success and made an educated guess about their likelihood. You now have a good map of what might lie in the path on the way to your goal.”

GoalDecisionPathControlNavigation
Book:How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices
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