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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't

Book by Nate Silver · 3 quotes · Crowd, Forecasting, Independent

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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't Quotes

“In any contentious debate, some people will find it advantageous to align themselves with the crowd, while a smaller number will come to see themselves as persecuted outsiders. This may especially hold in a field like climate science, where the data is noisy and the predictions are hard to experience in a visceral way. And it may be especially common in the United States, which is admirably independent-minded.”

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Book:The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't
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“Indeed, the big brokerage firms tend to avoid standing out from the crowd, downgrading a stock only after its problems have become obvious. In October 2001, fifteen of the seventeen analysts following Enron still had a “buy” or “strong buy” recommendation on the stock even though it had already lost 50 percent of its value in the midst of the company’s accounting scandal.”

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Book:The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't
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“The most robust evidence indicates that this wisdom-of-crowds principle holds when forecasts are made independently before being averaged together. In a true betting market (including the stock market), people can and do react to one another’s behavior.”

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Book:The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't
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