“If a betting game among a certain number of participants I played long enough, eventually one player will have all the money. If there is any skill involved, it will accelerate the process of concentrating all the stakes in a few hands. Something like this happens in the market. There is a persistent overall tendency for equity to flow from the many to the few. In the long run, the majority loses. The implication for the trader is that to win you have to act like the minority. If you bring normal human habits and tendencies to trading, you'll gravitate toward the majority and inevitably lose.” IfsHumansLongEnoughHandsHappensRunningCertainGamesWinningProcessLosesNumbersPlayerHabitInvolvedSkillsNormalFlowMajorityTendenciesMinoritiesStakesLong RunsTradingEquityPersistentImplicationsParticipantsConcentratingTradersAccelerateBetting Author:William Eckhardt
“It's much easier to learn what you should do in trading than to do it. Good systems tend to violate normal human tendencies.” ShouldHumansEasierNormalTendenciesTrading Author:William Eckhardt
“People want to buy cheap and sell dear; this by itself makes them countertrend. But the notion of cheapness or dearness must be anchored to something. People tend to view the prices they’re used to as normal and prices removed from these levels as aberrant. This perpective leads people to trade counter to an emerging trend on the assumption that prices will eventually return to “normal”. Therein lies the path to disaster.” PeopleWantUsedLyingLevelsViewsPathReturnNormalTradeSellsNotionDearDisasterAssumptionTrendsEmergingCheapness Author:William Eckhardt
“Good systems tend to violate normal human tendencies.” HumansNormalTendencies Author:William Eckhardt
