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Quote by Austin Bradford Hill

“All scientific work is incomplete - whether it be observational or experimental. All scientific work is liable to be upset or modified by advancing knowledge. That does not confer upon us a freedom to ignore the knowledge we already have, to postpone action that it appears to demand at a given time. Who knows, asks Robert Browning, but the world may end tonight? True, but on available evidence most of us make ready to commute on the 8:30 next day.”

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Austin Bradford Hill

Austin Bradford Hill was a British statistician born on July 8, 1897, and died on April 18, 1991. He made significant contributions to the fields of epidemiology and statistics, particularly in the study of association. Hill is known for his contributions to causal research, especially his nine criteria for causal association. more

“Suppose you had a small electrical fire and... a structural engineer [looked] at your home's wiring [and] reports that the wiring is "shot" and there is a 50% chance that your house would burn down in the next few years unless you replace all the wiring. The job will cost $20,000... so you get an independent assessment. The next engineer agrees with the first warning. You can either continue to shop for additional evaluations until you find the one engineer in 1,000 that is willing to give you the answer you want, "Your family is not in danger" or you can change the wiring.”

“The number of hypotheses and theories about climate change are numerous. Quite naturally they have caught the public attention, as any proof of past climactic change points to the possibility of future climate change, which inevitably will have significant implications for global economics.”

Past Numbers Attention Possibility Theory Economics Climate Climate Change Caught Proof Significant Hypothesis Implications

Author:Eduard Bruckner

“While we cannot accurately predict the course of climate change in the coming decades, the risks we run if we don't change our course are enormous. Prudent risk management does not equate uncertainty with inaction.”

Ifs Doe Running Courses Risk Management Climate Climate Change Decades Enormous Uncertainty Inaction Prudent Don't Change Risk Management

Author:Steven Chu

“My favourite fellow of the Royal Society is the Reverend Thomas Bayes, an obscure 18th-century Kent clergyman and a brilliant mathematician who devised a complex equation known as the Bayes theorem, which can be used to work out probability distributions. It had no practical application in his lifetime, but today, thanks to computers, is routinely used in the modelling of climate change, astrophysics and stock-market analysis.”

Quote by Austin Bradford Hill

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