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Quote by Shannon Messenger

“The Neverseen may think themselves brilliant schemers, full of plans no one would ever suspect. But when it came to game-changing secrets, the Black Swan would always be the best.”

Quote by Shannon Messenger

Book:Nightfall
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Nightfall

In this thought-provoking narrative, a group of individuals struggle to find a solution to the impending disaster while the world descends into chaos. The story explores themes of survival, human resilience, and the fragility of civilization. more

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Shannon Messenger

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“HISTORY AND THE TRIPLET OF OPACITY History is opaque. You see what comes out, not the script that produces events, the generator of history. There is a fundamental incompleteness in your grasp of such events, since you do not see what's inside the box, how the mechanisms work. What I call the generator of historical events is different from the events themselves, much as the minds of the gods cannot be read just by witnessing their deeds. You are very likely to be fooled about their intentions. This disconnect is similar to the difference between the food you see on the table at the restaurant and the process you can observe in the kitchen. (The last time I brunched at a certain Chinese restaurant on Canal Street in downtown Manhattan, I saw a rat coming out of the kitchen.) The human mind suffers from three ailments as it comes into contact with history, what I call the triplet of opacity. They are: a. the illusion of understanding, or how everyone thinks he knows what is going on in a world that is more complicated (or random) than they realize; b. the retrospective distortion, or how we can assess matters only after the fact, as if they were in a rearview mirror (history seems clearer and more organized in history books than in empirical reality); and c. the overvaluation of factual information and the handicap of authoritative and learned people, particularly when they create categories—when they "Platonify.”

Black Swan
Author:Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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“So when I presented to what was until then the most hostile crowd in the world, members of the American Statistical Association, a map of the four quadrants, and told them: your knowledge works beautifully in these three quadrants, but beware of the fourth one, as this is where the Black Swans breed, I received instant approval, support, offers of permanent friendship, refreshments (Diet Coke), invitations to come present at their sessions, even hugs.”

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Book:The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
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“I came to discuss Black Swans, and I intended to tell them that the only thing I know is that we know precious little about them, but that it was their property to sneak up on us, and that attempts at Platonifying them led to additional misunderstandings. Military people can understand such things, and the idea became recently prevalent in military circles with the expression unknown unknown (as opposed to the known unknown).”

RiskMilitaryUncertaintyBlack SwanUnknown Unknowns
Book:The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
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