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The Definitive Guide to Thriving on Disruption: Volume II - Essential Frameworks for Disruption and Uncertainty

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Roger Spitz

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“The imagined suppression of uncertainty is nothing more than a mirage… The future is unknown, and we all constantly make assumptions. But to rely on assumptions as if they were certainty is irresponsible.”

RiskResilienceUncertaintyForesightAssumptionsFutures ThinkingAntifragileAnticipatory
Book:The Definitive Guide to Thriving on Disruption: Volume II - Essential Frameworks for Disruption and Uncertainty
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“This need for humans to enhance their capabilities to become AAA is relevant in the context of machines learning faster, with increasingly higher-level human functions.”

EducationComplexityDisruptionAgilityAgileAntifragileAntifragilityAnticipatoryArtificial Intelligencelligence
Book:The Definitive Guide to Thriving on Disruption: Volume I - Reframing and Navigating Disruption
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“Many man-made systems, including ICT systems, have positive feedback loops that cause certain local events to propagate and create extreme global behaviors. The extreme behaviors, especially unplanned downtime, become more common than stakeholders can accept. These outliers are modeled by probability distributions with thick tails. Unfortunately, classical methods for risk analysis based on predictions of future events tend to underestimate or ignore extreme global behaviors in complex adaptive ICT systems, even though these events may very well dominate the overall risk to stakeholders.”

RiskDesignArchitectureComplexitySystems ThinkingAntifragileIct
Book:Anti-fragile ICT Systems
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