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“The first proper sample-based census was not carried out until 1949, so demographers have to reconstruct population totals from micro-level data on food supply, settlement patterns, village counts, birth records, and the like. The most sophisticated modeling by French and Belgian demographers variously suggests a population of 8 to 11 million in 1885 and 10 to 12 million by 1908. The Belgian Jean-Paul Sanderson, using a backward projection method by age cohorts, found a slight decline, from 10.5 million in 1885 to 10 million in 1910. This estimated change in total population governed by changing birth and death rates over a 25 year period represents a negligible annual net decline in population.”

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Book:King Hochschild’s Hoax: An absurdly deceptive book on Congolese rubber production is better described as historical fiction.
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“Even taking Sanderson’s pessimistic estimate as correct, does this mean that Léopold’s rule “killed” 500,000 people? Of course not, because, in addition to the misplaced personalization of long-term population changes, the rubber regions, as mentioned, experienced both population increases and declines. Even in the latter, such as the rubber-producing Bolobo area in the lower reaches of the Congo river, population decline was a result of the brutalities of freelance native chiefs and ended with the arrival of an EIC officer. More generally, the stability and enforced peace of the EIC caused birth rates to rise near EIC centers, such as at the Catholic mission under EIC protection at Baudouinville (today’s Kirungu). Population declines were in areas outside of effective EIC control. The modest population gains caused by EIC interventions were overwhelmed by a range of wholly separate factors, which in order of importance were: the slave trade, sleeping sickness, inter-tribal warfare, other endemic diseases (smallpox, beriberi, influenza, yellow fever, pneumonia, dysentery, tuberculosis, typhoid fever, and venereal disease), cannibalism, and human sacrifice.”

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Book:King Hochschild’s Hoax: An absurdly deceptive book on Congolese rubber production is better described as historical fiction.
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“Vansina citeert een deel van een Harvard-studie over de Belgische kolonie Congo, gesticht in 1908. Het rapport citeert een eerder rapport over Belgisch Congo van 1919 waarin werd beweerd dat de bevolking “met de helft verminderd was”. Het citeert deze bewering om aan te geven dat het vrijwel zeker onjuist is. Dat komt omdat de bevolkingsschattingen voor Belgisch Congo sterk uiteenliepen en puur giswerk bleven. Ze waren van ‘weinig waarde bij het trekken van precieze conclusies’. De enige harde conclusie die het bereikte was dat de bevolking niet toenam. De oorzaken waren talrijk, waaronder slaapziekte, oorlog tussen stammen, slechte voeding, vrouwenhandel, polygamie en de arbeidsomstandigheden voor mannen in Europese industriële en commerciële ondernemingen.”

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Book:The Case for Colonialism: A Response to My Critics
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“The report quotes an earlier report on the Belgian Congo of 1919 which claimed that the population “has been reduced one-half.” It quotes this claim in order to state that it is almost certainly false. That is because population estimates for the Belgian Congo varied widely and remained pure guesswork. They were of “little value in drawing any precise conclusions.” The only firm conclusion it reached was that population was not increasing. The causes were multiple, including sleeping sickness, inter-tribal warfare, poor nutrition, female trafficking, polygamy, and the working conditions for men in European industrial and commercial enterprises.”

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Book:The Case for Colonialism: A Response to My Critics
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