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Charlie Munger: The Complete Investor

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Tren Griffin

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“For the most part, life gives you so many decisions to make and so many opportunities to recover from your mistakes that, if you handle them well, you can have a terrific life. Of course, sometimes there are major influences on the quality of our lives that come from things beyond our control—the circumstances we are born into, accidents and illnesses, and so forth—but for the most part even the worst circumstances can be made better with the right approach. For example, a friend of mine dove into a swimming pool, hit his head, and became a quadriplegic. But he approached his situation well and became as happy as anybody else, because there are many paths to happiness.”

LifeHappinessOpportunityDecisionMistakePathApproachTerrificCircumstanceRecover
Book:Principles: Life and Work
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“There is always opportunity cost in choosing one path over others. The betting elements of decisions—choice, probability, risk, etc.—are more obvious in some situations than others. Investments are clearly bets. A decision about a stock (buy, don’t buy, sell, hold, not to mention esoteric investment options) involves a choice about the best use of financial resources. Incomplete information and factors outside of our control make all our investment choices uncertain. We evaluate what we can, figure out what we think will maximize our investment money, and execute. Deciding not to invest or not to sell a stock, likewise, is a bet. These are the same decisions I make during a hand of poker: fold, check, call, bet, or raise.”

DecisionPathChoiceControlUncertainProbabilityInvestMaximizeBetOpportunity Cost
Book:Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
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“For any single decision, there are different ways the future could unfold—some better, some worse. When you make a decision, the decision makes certain paths possible (even if you don’t know where they lead) and others impossible. The decision you make determines which set of outcomes are possible and how likely each of those outcomes is. But it doesn’t determine which of that set of outcomes will actually happen.”

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Book:How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices
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“If you had a navigation app for your goals and decisions, it would work like a premortem and a backcast and its output would look like the Decision Exploration Table. You’ve identified two broad categories of future events (those within and outside your control) that could decrease or increase your chances of failure or success and made an educated guess about their likelihood. You now have a good map of what might lie in the path on the way to your goal.”

GoalDecisionPathControlNavigation
Book:How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices
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“Remember, managers are hubs of communication (see Chapter 12). The better they communicate across these sphere boundaries, the more people they can communicate with, and the more data they have. This consequently leads to better decision making. Ultimately, stronger communicators make better-informed decisions, and hopefully they are more successful because they waste less time wondering what to do.”

TimeDecisionCommunicationWasteDataManagerBoundaryInformed
Book:Managing Humans: Biting and Humorous Tales of a Software Engineering Manager
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