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Quote by Lauren Oliver

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Before I Fall

In this gripping novel, a high school senior finds herself trapped in a time loop, experiencing the same day repeatedly until she can unravel the mystery behind her death. The story explores themes of destiny, love, and the power of choices. more

Author

Lauren Oliver
Lauren Oliver

Lauren Oliver, born in 1982, is an accomplished American author known for her profound emotional depth and imaginative storytelling. Her works have garnered widespread acclaim and have resonated with readers around the world. more

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“Relativists have a point when they say that we don't just open our eyes and apprehend reality, as if perception were a window through which the soul gazes at the world. The idea that we just see things as they are is called naïve realism, and it was refuted by skeptical philosophers thousands of years ago with the help of a simple phenomenon: visual illusions.”

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Book:The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of Human Nature
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“A more serious consequence of the illusion of control is revealed in our preference for driving over flying. At least part of this irrational—from a survival point of view—habit is due to the fact that we “feel in control” when driving, but not when flying. The probability of dying in a cross-country flight is approximately equal to the probability of dying in a 12-mile drive— in many cases, the most dangerous part of the trip is over when you reach the airport (Sivak & Flannagan, 2003). Gerd Gigerenzer (2006) estimates that the post-9/11 shift from flying to driving in the United States resulted in an additional 1,500 deaths, beyond the original 3,000 immediate victims of the terrorist attacks.”

PsychologySafetyStatisticsProbabilityCognitive BiasesCar AccidentsTransportation SystemsFlying Accidents
Book:Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgement and Decision Making
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“As Richard Nisbett and Lee Ross (1980) point out, rationally defensible deductive logic involves a specification from the universal to the particular (“All men are mortal, therefore Robyn Dawes is mortal.”), but much less reliable inductive logic involves generalization from the particular to the universal (“This one Jewish merchant is dishonest, therefore all Jewish merchants are dishonest.”). However, we are prone to do the exact opposite: we under-deduce and over-induce.”

PsychologyDecision MakingRationalityCognitive BiasesDeductive ReasoningInductive Reasoning
Book:Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgement and Decision Making
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“Another situation in which we attend to base rates occurs if people ascribe some causal significance to discrepant rates. When they can see the causal relevance of the base rates, they often incorporate them into their reasoning. For example, the belief that one bus company has more accidents than another because its drivers are more poorly selected and trained will influence mock jurors to take this difference in accident rates into account in evaluating eyewitness testimony; but belief that a bus company has more accidents simply because it is larger will not. Study after study has shown that when these rates are merely statistical as opposed to causal, they tend to be ignored. Exactly the same effect seems to occur in real courtrooms; naked statistical evidence is notoriously unpersuasive.”

PsychologyStatisticsProbabilityRational ThinkingCausalityCognitive BiasesEvidence Based Decision MakingStatistical Evidence
Book:Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgement and Decision Making
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“But what if current misery hindsightfully selects and reconstructs memories of childhood to be consistent with a miserable state today? Peter Lewinsohn and Michael Rosenbaum (1987) set out to answer this question with a rare prospective study of over a thousand citizen volunteers. [...] The results were consistent with the hypothesis that recollection of one’s parents as rejecting and unloving is strongly influenced by current moods; negative recollections were not a stable characteristic of depression-prone people. [...] This study of depression is important in that it casts doubt on the degree to which adult problems are caused by childhood ones. Given a biasing effect of mood on memory, people who are distressed as adults tend to remember distressing incidents in their childhood. And, if a person also believes that current problems have their roots in early life (perhaps because their therapist told them so), this view itself may serve as an organizing principle to produce even greater distortion of recall (remember the Conway & Ross [1984] study).”

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Book:Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgement and Decision Making
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