“Researchers have found that merely asking people to assume their initial judgment is wrong, to seriously consider why that might be, and then make another judgment, produces a second estimate which, when combined with the first, improves accuracy almost as much as getting a second estimate from another person.” ForecastingEstimate Book:Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Source: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
“Need for cognition" is the psychological term for the tendency to engage in and enjoy hard mental slogs. [...] superforecasters score high in need-for-cognition tests.” CognitionForecastingSuperforcaster Book:Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Source: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction