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Philip E. Tetlock Biography

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“Not knowing is exciting. It's an opportunity to discover.”

Knowledge Knowing Discover

Book:Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Source: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

“Like everyone else, scientists have intuitions. Indeed, hunches and flashes of insight—the sense that something is true even if you can’t prove it—have been behind countless breakthroughs. The interplay between System 1 and System 2 can be subtle and creative.”

Science Prove Insight Intuition True Breakthrough Hunch System 1 System 2

Book:Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Source: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

“An imperfect decision made in time was better than a perfect decision made too late. Ref. German mission command.”

Book:Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Source: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

“When you combine the judgments of a large group of people to calculate the “wisdom of the crowd” you collect all the relevant information that is dispersed among all those people. But none of those people has access to all that information. One person knows only some of it, another knows some more, and so on.”

Information Judgement Crowd Group Widsom Disperse

Book:Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Source: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

“Researchers have found that merely asking people to assume their initial judgment is wrong, to seriously consider why that might be, and then make another judgment, produces a second estimate which, when combined with the first, improves accuracy almost as much as getting a second estimate from another person.”

Forecasting Estimate

Book:Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Source: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

“Here’s my long-term prediction for Long Now. When the Long Now audience of 2515 looks back on the audience of 2015, their level of contempt for how we go about judging political debate will be roughly comparable to the level of contempt we have for the 1692 Salem witch trials.”

Political Debate

Author:Philip E. Tetlock

“Need for cognition" is the psychological term for the tendency to engage in and enjoy hard mental slogs. [...] superforecasters score high in need-for-cognition tests.”

Cognition Forecasting Superforcaster

Book:Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Source: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction