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Quote by Judea Pearl

“How was confounding defined then, and how should it be defined? Armed with what we now know about the logic of causality, the answer to the second question is easier. The quantity we observe is the conditional probability of the outcome given the treatment, P(Y | X). The question we want to ask of Nature has to do with the causal relationship between X and Y, which is captured by the interventional probability P( Y | do(X)). Confounding, then, should simply be defined as anything that leads to a discrepancy between the two: P(Y | X) != P(Y | do(X)). Why all the fuss.”

Quote by Judea Pearl

Book:The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect
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The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect

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Judea Pearl

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“Every now and then, I'm lucky enough to teach a kindergarten or first-grade class. Many of these children are natural-born scientists - although heavy on the wonder side, and light on skepticism. They're curious, intellectually vigorous. Provocative and insightful questions bubble out of them. They exhibit enormous enthusiasm. I'm asked follow-up questions. They've never heard of the notion of a 'dumb question'. But when I talk to high school seniors, I find something different. They memorize 'facts'. By and large, though, the joy of discovery, the life behind those facts has gone out of them. They've lost much of the wonder and gained very little skepticism. They're worried about asking 'dumb' questions; they are willing to accept inadequate answers, they don't pose follow-up questions, the room is awash with sidelong glances to judge, second-by-second, the approval of their peers. They come to class with their questions written out on pieces of paper, which they surreptitiously examine, waiting their turn and oblivious of whatever discussion their peers are at this moment engaged in. Something has happened between first and twelfth grade. And it's not just puberty. I'd guess that it's partly peer pressure not to excel - except in sports, partly that the society teaches short-term gratification, partly the impression that science or mathematics won't buy you a sports car, partly that so little is expected of students, and partly that there are few rewards or role-models for intelligent discussion of science and technology - or even for learning for it's own sake. Those few who remain interested are vilified as nerds or geeks or grinds. But there's something else. I find many adults are put off when young children pose scientific questions. 'Why is the Moon round?', the children ask. 'Why is grass green?', 'What is a dream?', 'How deep can you dig a hole?', 'When is the world's birthday?', 'Why do we have toes?'. Too many teachers and parents answer with irritation, or ridicule, or quickly move on to something else. 'What did you expect the Moon to be? Square?' Children soon recognize that somehow this kind of question annoys the grown-ups. A few more experiences like it, and another child has been lost to science.”

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Book:The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
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“Up to 7% or more' of newborn infants are given antibiotics within the first three days after birth and almost all of them will receive a hep-B shot within the first day or two of life. This is a bad combination. To protect them from sepsis is understandable, but it is obviously overdone. This is another reason why hep-B vaccines should not be given routinely to all newborns. Toxins within the hep B vaccine plus antibiotics equals potentially adverse outcomes for these infants which can easily be avoided. After taking antibiotics yeast in the body can grow out of control, causing a variety of problems. Then to make things worse, we add more yeast into the infant’s body with the hep B vaccine, which contains brewer’s yeast. The combination of hep B vaccine and antibiotics directly after birth is not a good idea.”

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“It is often after this round of vaccines in the second month that the problems with the CDC recommended vaccine schedule come to light in the form of allergies and/or other autoimmune diseases emerging in our infants. Do not listen to your doctor if they say these conditions are typical and common. These conditions have become common, most likely because all the other children have overdosed on aluminum as well and are suffering along with you. The FDA and CDC appear to have approved and promoted toxic conditions to occur in the children of the United States.”

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