“We have to deal with this new type of threat in a way we haven’t yet defined. . . . With a low-probability, high-impact event like this . . . If there’s a one percent chance that Pakistani scientists are helping al Qaeda build or develop a nuclear weapon, we have to treat it as a certainty in terms of our response.” IfsWayHelpingTermChanceDealsEventsHavensTypeWeaponsLowsPercentScientistTreatsImpactThreatResponseNuclearDefinedCertaintyAlsNuclear WeaponsProbabilityAl Qaeda Author:Dick Cheney
“I believe the calculation of the quantity of probability might be improved to a very useful and pleasant speculation, and applied to a great many events which are accidental, besides those of games; only these cases would be infinitely more confused, as depending on chances which the most part of men are ignorant of.” MenBelieveMightWould BeGamesI BelieveChanceCasesEventsIgnorantPleasantConfusedGreat MenQuantityProbabilitySpeculationCalculations Book:Miscellaneous Works of the Late Dr. Arbuthnot Source: Miscellaneous Works of the Late Dr. Arbuthnot
“Yet there seemed to be some truth in the law of probability, according to which the chance of success is directly proportionate to the number of repetitions.” LawChanceNumbersRepetitionProbability Author:Kobo Abe
“According to PhD astrophysicists and qualified American science professors, the odds of the more than 2,500 prophecies found in the Bible being fulfilled by chance are 1 with 2,000 zeros after it. According to the mathematical science of probability, if a number has more than 50 zeros after it, the odds of that happening by chance is virtually impossible. This is irrefutable proof that the Bible is inspired by God!” IfsFoundChanceNumbersImpossibleHappeningsInspiredProofMathematicalProfessorsOddsFulfilledProphecyProbabilityQualifiedChances ArePhds Author:Hugh Ross
“The historical museum has to be very conservative and careful in its choices. The modern museum, on the other hand, has to be audacious, to take chances. It has to consider the probability that it would be wrong in a good many cases and take the consequences later.” HandsWould BeChoicesChanceCasesModernConsequenceHistoricalConservativeCarefulGood ManMuseumsProbabilityTake A ChanceAudacious Author:Alfred H. Barr, Jr.
“The difficulty in judging what type of behavior works well arises not only because a given course of action does not always produce the outcomes. Similar outcomes can occur for reasons other than the person's actions, which further complicates inferential judgment. Effects that arise independently of one's actions distort the influence of similar effects produced by the actions, but only on some occasions. Given a strong cognitive set to perceive regularities, even chance joint occurrences of events can be easily misjudged as genuine relationships of low contingent probability” WellsPersonsDoeReasonActionCoursesStrongGivenChanceInfluenceEffectsEventsProduceJudgingTypeBehaviorJudgmentLowsDifficultyGenuineAriseOccasionsPerceiveOutcomesProbabilityJointsCognitiveRegularitySelf Efficacy Author:Albert Bandura
“If zero percent of the elites support something, very low chance it's going to pass, if 100% support something, very high chance it's going to pass. Same thing for organized interest groups. But for the average voter, it's a flat line. Which says it doesn't matter whether zero percent of the public believes something or 100% of the average voters believe something - it doesn't affect the probability that that thing will be enacted.” IfsBelieveMatterInterestLinesChanceSupportGroupsLowsPercentAverageOrganizedFlatsZeroVotersElitesProbabilityInterest Groups Author:Lawrence Lessig