“I do not believe that there is any person, method, or tool that can consistently and reliably predict specific human events, X- or otherwise.” BelieveHumansPersonsEventsToolsMethodConsistently Author:John L. Casti
“I believe is that we can forecast the "changing landscape of context," and thus get insight into when we are entering the danger zone of an X-event.” BelieveI BelieveEventsDangerInsightLandscapeZoneEnteringForecastsOf Context Author:John L. Casti
“If the group has a negative social mood, believing that tomorrow will be worse than today, the bias goes in the opposite direction. Instead of "welcoming" we have "rejecting," instead of "global" we tend to see events that are "local" and so forth.” IfsBelieveTodaySocialGroupsEventsTomorrowNegativeOppositesMoodLocalsWelcomeBiasRejecting Author:John L. Casti
“When the next big problem comes online, be it the Euro crisis, nuclear proliferation, an overstretched Internet, a killer flu, or any of the other possibilities I consider in X-Events, we will suffer a complexity overload.” ProblemBigsSufferingNextEventsPossibilityInternetCrisisNuclearComplexityOnlineKillersFluEuroBig ProblemsProliferationOverloadNuclear ProliferationEuro Crisis Author:John L. Casti
“In fact, the very nature of an X-event is that it is both rare and surprising. So I would not say that any specific X-event is likely. What I would say, though, is that some X-event is not only plausible, but very likely in a time scale of a few years.” YearsFactsEventsScalesSurprisingPlausible Author:John L. Casti
