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John L. Casti Biography

Author

John L. Casti is a renowned author and systems theorist, born in 1943. His works span a wide range of topics including complex systems, predictive models, and scientific philosophy, which have been well-received by both academics and the public.

Knows World Today Natural Careers Fields Amount Scientist Function Mathematics Disaster Experts Natural World Prescriptions Today's World Specialization Ultras

Author:John L. Casti

“We see an ever-increasing move toward inter and trans- disciplinary attacks upon problems in the real world ... The system scientist has a central role to play in this new order, and that role is to first of all understand ways and means of how to encode the natural world into "good" formal structures.”

World Way Firsts Mean Real Play Problem Moving Order Natural Roles Scientist Structure Real World Formal Natural World Trans

Author:John L. Casti

“I do not believe that there is any person, method, or tool that can consistently and reliably predict specific human events, X- or otherwise.”

Believe Humans Persons Events Tools Method Consistently

Author:John L. Casti

“I believe is that we can forecast the "changing landscape of context," and thus get insight into when we are entering the danger zone of an X-event.”

Believe I Believe Events Danger Insight Landscape Zone Entering Forecasts Of Context

Author:John L. Casti

“If the group has a negative social mood, believing that tomorrow will be worse than today, the bias goes in the opposite direction. Instead of "welcoming" we have "rejecting," instead of "global" we tend to see events that are "local" and so forth.”

Ifs Believe Today Social Groups Events Tomorrow Negative Opposites Mood Locals Welcome Bias Rejecting

Author:John L. Casti

“The global financial system consists of firms in the financial services sector - banks, hedge funds, insurance companies and the like - and various governmental agencies who are charged with regulating these firms.”

Company Financial Various Firm Agency Fund Insurance Companies Financial System Hedge Fund Financial Services

Author:John L. Casti

“From the 1990s onward, the financial sector created a vast array of instruments designed to separate investors from their money, financial derivatives of an ever-increasing level of complexity. At some point, this complexity reached a point where even the creators of the derivatives themselves didn't understand them.”

Levels Instruments Financial Creator Complexity Investors Derivatives

Author:John L. Casti

“A good analogy is stretching a rubber band. You can stretch and stretch and even feel the tension increase in the muscles in your hands and arms as the gap from one end of the band to the other widens. But at some point you reach the limits of elasticity of the band and it snaps. The same thing happens with human systems.”

Feels Humans Ends Hands Happens Arms Band Limits Increase Things Happen Tension Muscles Gaps Snaps Stretching Analogies Rubber Elasticity Rubber Bands

Author:John L. Casti

“When the next big problem comes online, be it the Euro crisis, nuclear proliferation, an overstretched Internet, a killer flu, or any of the other possibilities I consider in X-Events, we will suffer a complexity overload.”

Problem Bigs Suffering Next Events Possibility Internet Crisis Nuclear Complexity Online Killers Flu Euro Big Problems Proliferation Overload Nuclear Proliferation Euro Crisis

Author:John L. Casti

“The process of globalization has now interconnected almost everything ranging from financial markets to transport networks to communication systems in a huge system that no one really understands.”

Process Huge Communication Financial Globalization Transport Interconnected Financial Markets

Author:John L. Casti

“System theorists know that it's easy to couple simple-to-understand systems into a "super system" that's capable of displaying behavioral modes that cannot be seen in any of its constituent parts. This is the process called "emergence."”

Knows Easy Process Simple Couple Capable Emergence Constituents Theorists

Author:John L. Casti

“In fact, the very nature of an X-event is that it is both rare and surprising. So I would not say that any specific X-event is likely. What I would say, though, is that some X-event is not only plausible, but very likely in a time scale of a few years.”

Years Facts Events Scales Surprising Plausible

Author:John L. Casti

“The unfolding time for the end of globalization or a worldwide deflation is much longer, certainly measured in years, if not decades.”

Ifs Years Ends Decades Globalization Unfolding Deflation

Author:John L. Casti

“The world is awash in more debt than there is money enough in the world to liquidate it.”

World Enough Debt

Author:John L. Casti

“Trying to solve the problem by creating more debt is analogous to trying to stop being an alcoholic by going on a bender down at the corner bar.”

Trying Problem Creating Corners Solve Debt Bars Alcoholics

Author:John L. Casti

“At some point, the world is going to have to bite the bullet and accept a huge downsizing in its way of life to bring the assets-to-debt ratio back in touch with reality.”

World Way Reality Accepting Huge Debt Assets Bites Bullets Ratios Downsizing

Author:John L. Casti

“If you ask which of the scenarios I think is most dangerous, though, I will give a different answer. In that form of the question, I regard a nuclear attack, terrorist-generated or otherwise, as the most threatening combination of likelihood and long-term damage to modern life today.”

Ifs Thinking Giving Long Different Today Form Asks Term Answers Modern Dangerous Regard Nuclear Terrorist Combination Long Term Damage Threatening Modern Life Scenarios Likelihood

Author:John L. Casti

“I think that in the immediate aftermath of a superhuman machine intelligence revealing itself, most people would feel very threatened but take solace in the thought that we can always pull the plug.”

People Thinking Feels Machines Threatened Revealing Solace Aftermath Plugs Superhuman

Author:John L. Casti

“Once the reality sets in of a superhuman intelligence being in control of every aspect of the infrastructures we rely upon for everyday life, we will simply have to try to come to an accommodation with that entity.”

Trying Reality Aspect Everyday Rely Entity Everyday Life Infrastructure Superhuman Rely Upon Accommodations

Author:John L. Casti

“My own guess is that quite quickly the machine intelligence will start dreaming machine dreams and thinking machine thoughts, both of which would totally incomprehensible to us. This would then lead to each species, we and the machines, moving off on to its own separate life trajectory.”

Thinking Dream Moving My Own Machines Species Trajectory Separate Lives

Author:John L. Casti

“I don't think the emergence of a superhuman intelligence would be at all catastrophic but much more likely to be beneficial - just as long as we don't start trying to interfere with it!”

Thinking Trying Long Would Be Interfere Beneficial Emergence Superhuman

Author:John L. Casti

“What distinguishes a mathematical model from, say, a poem, a song, a portrait or any other kind of "model," is that the mathematical model is an image or picture of reality painted with logical symbols instead of with words, sounds or watercolors.”

Kind Reality Song Sound Teaching Models Math Symbols Mathematical Logical Portraits Watercolors Mathematical Models

Author:John L. Casti

“Resilience, timing, adaptation - these are the three pillars upon which the emergent properties of interacting systems rest. When the systems are the economy and the environment, understanding of the relationships among these concepts is crucial. This volume does a better job of explaining how to manage both money and nature to ensure humanity's long-term future than any other work I know of. Read and reflect.”

“Reality is a wave function traveling both backward and forward in time.”

Reality Function Wave

Author:John L. Casti

About the Author

Born: 1943
Known for: Author
Quotes: 24

Books & Sources

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