“Economics also has to become a fundamentally monetary discipline—from the consideration of how individuals make market decisions through to our understanding of macroeconomics. The myth of "the money illusion" (which can only be true in a world without debt) has to be immediately dispelled, while our macroeconomics have to reflect a monetary economy in which nominal magnitudes matter, precisely because they are the link between the value of current output and the financing of accumulated debt. The dangers of excessive debt and deflation simply cannot be comprehended from a neoclassical perspective. The discipline must also become fundamentally empirical, in contrast to the faux empiricism of econometrics. By this I mean basing itself on the economic and financial data first and foremost—the collection and interpretation of which has been the hallmark of contributions by econophysicists—and by respecting economic history, a topic which has been systematically expunged from economics departments around the world.” EconomicsMacroeconomics2009Neoclassical EconomicsEconometricsEconophysics Book:Adbusters #84 Pop Nihilism Source: Adbusters #84 Pop Nihilism
“This book is an essay in what is derogatorily called "literary economics," as opposed to mathematical economics, econometrics, or (embracing them both) the "new economic history." A man does what he can, and in the more elegant - one is tempted to say "fancier" - techniques I am, as one who received his formation in the 1930s, untutored. A colleague has offered to provide a mathematical model to decorate the work. It might be useful to some readers, but not to me. Catastrophe mathematics, dealing with such events as falling off a height, is a new branch of the discipline, I am told, which has yet to demonstrate its rigor or usefulness. I had better wait. Econometricians among my friends tell me that rare events such as panics cannot be dealt with by the normal techniques of regression, but have to be introduced exogenously as "dummy variables." The real choice open to me was whether to follow relatively simple statistical procedures, with an abundance of charts and tables, or not. In the event, I decided against it. For those who yearn for numbers, standard series on bank reserves, foreign trade, commodity prices, money supply, security prices, rate of interest, and the like are fairly readily available in the historical statistics.” EconomicsFinanceStatisticsEconometrics Book:Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises Source: Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises
“A good way to do econometrics is to look for good natural experiments and use statistical methods that can tidy up the confounding factors that Nature has not controlled for us.” EconomicsEconometrics Author:Daniel McFadden
“Econometrics may be defined as the quantitative analysis of actual economic phenomena based on the concurrent development of theory and observation, related by appropriate methods of inference.” MayEconomicTheoryDevelopmentMethodObservationDefinedAnalysisRelatedAppropriateInferenceEconometrics Author:Paul Samuelson
“[The 1975 Chase Econometrics] showed that for every one dollar spent on Apollo, 14 came back into the U.S. economy.” InspirationMotivationEconomyDollarsApolloEconometrics Author:Brian Cox
“I work on the boundary between economics and statistics in this field called econometrics. Part of my interest is understanding how you use statistics in productive ways to analyze dynamic economic models.” WayUseUnderstandingInterestEconomicFieldsModelsEconomicsBoundariesProductiveStatisticsEconomic ModelsEconometrics Author:Lars Peter Hansen
“To reduce the interpretation of the causality of all kinds of climate changes and of global warming to one variable, CO2, or to a small proportion of one variable - human-induced CO2 - is impossible to accept. Elementary rationality and my decades-long experience with econometric modelling and statistical testing of scientific hypotheses tell me that it is impossible to make strong conclusions based on mere correlation of two (or more) time series.” HumansKindLongTwoStrongAcceptingImpossibleSeriesMereClimateClimate ChangeDecadesConclusionAll KindsProportionGlobal WarmingInterpretationMore TimeRationalityHypothesisTestingVariablesCorrelationCo2CausalityModellingEconometrics Author:Vaclav Klaus
“Economic development is something much wider and deeper than economics, let alone econometrics. Its roots lie outside the economic sphere, in education, organisation, discipline and, beyond that, in political independence and a national consciousness of self-reliance.” SelfPoliticalLyingConsciousnessEconomicDevelopmentDisciplineEconomicsRootsIndependenceDeeperSpheresSelf RelianceRelianceOrganisationEconomic DevelopmentSmall Is BeautifulPolitical IndependenceEconometrics Author:E. F. Schumacher
“The first and most optimistic response was complete rational expectations econometrics. A rational expectations equilibrium is a likelihood function. Maximize it.” FirstsExpectationsFunctionResponseRationalOptimisticEquilibriumLikelihoodEconometrics Author:Thomas J. Sargent
“During the early 1960s, I decided to supplement research support for quantitative economic studies at Pennsylvania by selling econometric forecasts to private and public sector buyers.” SupportStudyEconomicResearchDecidedSelling1960sSupplementsPennsylvaniaBuyersForecastsPublic SectorEconometrics Author:Lawrence Klein