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Events Quotes

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Events Quotes

“We have to deal with this new type of threat in a way we haven’t yet defined. . . . With a low-probability, high-impact event like this . . . If there’s a one percent chance that Pakistani scientists are helping al Qaeda build or develop a nuclear weapon, we have to treat it as a certainty in terms of our response.”

Ifs Way Helping Term Chance Deals Events Havens Type Weapons Lows Percent Scientist Treats Impact Threat Response Nuclear Defined Certainty Als Nuclear Weapons Probability Al Qaeda

Author:Dick Cheney

“All the politics in the world are nothing else but a kind of analysis of the quantity of probability in casual events, and a good politician signifies no more but one who is dexterous at such calculations.”

World Kind Politics Events Politician Analysis Quantity Probability Casual Calculations Good Politicians

Author:John Arbuthnot

“I believe the calculation of the quantity of probability might be improved to a very useful and pleasant speculation, and applied to a great many events which are accidental, besides those of games; only these cases would be infinitely more confused, as depending on chances which the most part of men are ignorant of.”

Men Believe Might Would Be Games I Believe Chance Cases Events Ignorant Pleasant Confused Great Men Quantity Probability Speculation Calculations

Book:Miscellaneous Works of the Late Dr. Arbuthnot

Source: Miscellaneous Works of the Late Dr. Arbuthnot

“There is nothing in the nature of a miracle that should render it incredible:;: its credibility depends upon the nature of the evidence by which it is supported. An event of extreme probability will not necessarily command our belief unless upon a sufficiency of proof; and so an event which we may regard as highly improbable may command our belief if it is sustained by sufficient evidence. So that the credibility or incredibility of an event does not rest upon the nature of the event itself, but depends upon the nature and sufficiency of the proof which sustains it.”

Ifs Should May Doe Belief Events Depends Evidence Miracle Regard Incredibles Extremes Proof Command Sufficient Probability Credibility Improbable Sufficiency

Book:Passages from the Life of a Philosopher

Source: Passages from the Life of a Philosopher

“Okay, look at it this way: if the evening news has a very high probability of being accurate, then it's highly improbable that they would inaccurately report the numbers chosen in the lottery. That counterbalances any improbability in the choosing of those numbers, so you're quite rational to believe in this highly improbable event.”

Ifs Way Believe Looks Numbers Events News Okay Chosen Rational Evening Reports Accurate Probability Lottery Improbable Improbability

Author:William Lane Craig

“The endeavor of scientific research to see events in their more general connection in order to determine their laws, is a legitimate and useful occupation. Any protest against such efforts, in the name of freefom from restrictive conditions, would be fruitless if science did not naïvely identify the abstractions called rules and laws with the actually efficacious forces, and confuse the probability that B will follow A with the actual effort make B follow A.”

Ifs Would Be Law Order Names Force Effort Conditions Events Research Connections Determine Protest Occupation Endeavor Probability Abstraction Scientific Research

Author:Max Horkheimer

“Almost all thinking people agree that you should not have probability 1 (or 0) for any event, other than one demonstrable by logic, like 2 x 2 = 4.”

People Thinking Should Events Logic Agree Probability

Author:Dennis Lindley

“The issue, as correctly emphasized by Carl Sagan, is the probability of the evolution of high intelligence and an electronic civilization on an inhabited world. Once we have life (and almost surely it will be very different from life on Earth), what is the probability of its developing a lineage with high intelligence? On Earth, among millions of lineages of organisms and perhaps 50 billion speciation events, only one led to high intelligence; this makes me believe in its utter improbability.”

World Believe Different Earth Millions Issues Events Evolution Civilization Billions Astronomy Developing Organisms Probability Lineage Improbability Sagan Speciation

Author:Ernst Mayr

“The risk of a business being hit by a low probability, high impact event is far higher than most boards realize because the number of potential wild cards is so great.”

Realizing Numbers Risk Events Higher Lows Impact Cards Boards Probability

Author:Patrick Dixon

“As a doctor, as a man of science, I can tell you there is no such thing as curses Everything just happens as a question of probability. The statistical likelihood of a specific event.”

Men I Can Happens Science Events Doctors Curse Probability Likelihood

Author:Andrew Schneider

“The difficulty in judging what type of behavior works well arises not only because a given course of action does not always produce the outcomes. Similar outcomes can occur for reasons other than the person's actions, which further complicates inferential judgment. Effects that arise independently of one's actions distort the influence of similar effects produced by the actions, but only on some occasions. Given a strong cognitive set to perceive regularities, even chance joint occurrences of events can be easily misjudged as genuine relationships of low contingent probability”

“Do not personally give any more conscious consideration, either of you, to events that you do not want to happen. Any such concentration, to whatever degree, ties you in with those probabilities, so concentrate upon what you want, and as far as public events are concerned, take it for granted that sometimes even men are wiser than they know.”

Knows Men Want Giving Sometimes Happens Events Degrees Conscious Concerned What You Want Granted Ties Consideration Concentration Wiser Probability

Author:Seth

“It follows that the word probability, in its mathematical acceptance, has reference to the state of our knowledge of the circumstances under which an event may happen or fail. With the degree of information we possess concerning the circumstances of an event, the reason we have to think that it will occur, or, to use a single term, our expectation of it will vary. Probability is the expectation founded upon partial knowledge.”

Thinking May States Reason Use Happens Term Failing Events Information Acceptance Circumstances Degrees Expectations Mathematical Probability Vary

Book:An Investigation of the Laws of Thought

Source: An Investigation of the Laws of Thought

“The prospect, that a good general government will in all human probability be soon established in America, affords me more substantial satisfaction; than I have ever before derived from any political event. Because there is a rational ground for believing that not only the happiness of my own countrymen, but that of mankind in general, will be promoted by it.”

Believe Humans Government America Political My Own Mankind Events Satisfaction Rational Probability Countrymen

Book:The Writings of George Washington: pt. III. Private letters from the time Washington resigned his commission as commander-in-chief of the Army to that of his inauguration as president of the United States: December, 1783-April, 1789

Source: The Writings of George Washington: pt. III. Private letters from the time Washington resigned his commission as commander-in-chief of the Army to that of his inauguration as president of the United States: December, 1783-April, 1789

“Nearly everybody nowadays accepts the 'causal completeness of physics' - every physical event (or at least its probability) has a full physical cause. This leaves no room for non-physical things to make a causal difference to physical effects. But it would be absurd to deny that thoughts and feelings (and population movements and economic depressions . . .) cause physical effects. So they must be physical things.”

“I think that the existence of Beethoven is remarkable, but I do not bristle at the suggestion that this event had a low probability given the initial state of the universe.”

Thinking States Universe Given Existence Events Lows Remarkable Suggestions Probability Initials

Author:Elliott Sober