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“When excesses such as lax lending standards become widespread and persist for some time, people are lulled into a false sense of security, creating an even more dangerous situation. In some cases, excesses migrate beyond regional or national borders, raising the ante for investors and governments. These excesses will eventually end, triggering a crisis at least in proportion to the degree of the excesses. Correlations between asset classes may be surprisingly high when leverage rapidly unwinds.”

PeopleMayEndsGovernmentSituationClassCasesSecurityDangerousDegreesCreatingStandardsCrisisBordersProportionAssetsInvestorsExcessPersistLendingCorrelationUnwindMigrateLaxDangerous SituationsNational BordersFalse Sense Of Security
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“Nowhere does it say that investors should strive to make every last dollar of potential profit; consideration of risk must never take a backseat to return. Conservative positioning entering a crisis is crucial: it enables one to maintain long-term oriented, clear thinking, and to focus on new opportunities while others are distracted or even forced to sell. Portfolio hedges must be in place before a crisis hits. One cannot reliably or affordably increase or replace hedges that are rolling off during a financial crisis.”

ThinkingShouldLongDoeLastsOpportunityTermClearFocusRiskReturnIncreaseCrisisSellsDollarsStriveFinancialProfitConservativeLong TermConsiderationCrucialInvestorsRollingEnteringDistractedFinancial CrisisPortfoliosNew OpportunityBackseatClear Thinking
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“Do not accept principal risk while investing short-term cash: the greedy effort to earn a few extra basis points of yield inevitably leads to the incurrence of greater risk, which increases the likelihood of losses and severe illiquidity at precisely the moment when cash is needed to cover expenses, to meet commitments, or to make compelling long-term investments.”

LongMomentsTermLossEffortAcceptingGreaterRiskNeededCommitmentBasesIncreaseInvestmentInvestingLong TermExtrasExpensesYieldCashCompellingPrincipalSevereGreedyShort TermLikelihood
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“The latest trade of a security creates a dangerous illusion that its market price approximates its true value. This mirage is especially dangerous during periods of market exuberance. The concept of "private market value" as an anchor to the proper valuation of a business can also be greatly skewed during ebullient times and should always be considered with a healthy degree of skepticism.”

ShouldValuesSecurityDangerousPeriodsHealthyDegreesIllusionConceptsTradeSkepticismAnchorsMiragesExuberanceValuationTrue Value
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“Financial innovation can be highly dangerous, though almost no one will tell you this. New financial products are typically created for sunny days and are almost never stress-tested for stormy weather. Securitization is an area that almost perfectly fits this description; markets for securitized assets such as subprime mortgages completely collapsed in 2008 and have not fully recovered. Ironically, the government is eager to restore the securitization markets back to their pre-collapse stature.”

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“Beware leverage in all its forms. Borrowers - individual, corporate, or government - should always match fund their liabilities against the duration of their assets. Borrowers must always remember that capital markets can be extremely fickle, and that it is never safe to assume a maturing loan can be rolled over. Even if you are unleveraged, the leverage employed by others can drive dramatic price and valuation swings; sudden unavailability of leverage in the economy may trigger an economic downturn.”

IfsShouldMayGovernmentRememberFormIndividualEconomyEconomicSafeAssumingCorporateDramaticFundMatureAssetsSwingsEmployedLoanTriggersDurationFickleLiabilityValuationDownturnBorrowersEconomic Downturn
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“The government - the ultimate short-term-oriented player - cannot withstand much pain in the economy or the financial markets. Bailouts and rescues are likely to occur, though not with sufficient predictability for investors to comfortably take advantage. The government will take enormous risks in such interventions, especially if the expenses can be conveniently deferred to the future. Some of the price-tag is in the form of back- stops and guarantees, whose cost is almost impossible to determine.”

IfsGovernmentPainFormTermEconomyPlayerImpossibleRiskCostAdvantageUltimateFinancialDetermineEnormousSufficientGuaranteesExpensesInvestorsRescueInterventionShort TermTagFinancial MarketsPredictabilityPrice TagBailouts
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“Below, we itemize some of the quite different lessons investors seem to have learned as of late 2009 - false lessons, we believe. To not only learn but also effectively implement investment lessons requires a disciplined, often contrary, and long-term-oriented investment approach. It requires a resolute focus on risk aversion rather than maximizing immediate returns, as well as an understanding of history, a sense of financial market cycles, and, at times, extraordinary patience.”

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“In a crisis, stocks of financial companies are great investments, because the tide is bound to turn. Massive losses on bad loans and soured investments are irrelevant to value; improving trends and future prospects are what matter, regardless of whether profits will have to be used to cover loan losses and equity shortfalls for years to come.”

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“The government can always rescue the markets or interfere with contract law whenever it deems convenient with little or no apparent cost. (Investors believe this now and, worse still, the government believes it as well. We are probably doomed to a lasting legacy of government tampering with financial markets and the economy, which is likely to create the mother of all moral hazards. The government is blissfully unaware of the wisdom of Friedrich Hayek: "The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.")”

KnowsMenBelieveWellsLittlesStillsGovernmentLawMotherMoralEconomyImagineDesignCostEconomicsTasksFinancialCuriousLegacyLastingContractsInvestorsRescueInterfereDoomedConvenientHazardsFinancial MarketsHayekFriedrich HayekLasting LegacyMoral Hazard
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“One thing I want to emphasize is that, like any human being, we can discuss our view of the economy and the market. Fortunately for our clients, we don't tend to operate based on the view. Our investment strategy is to invest bottom up, one stock at a time, based on price compared to value. And while we may have a macro view that things aren't very good right now - which in fact we feel very strongly we will put money to work regardless of that macro view if we find bargains. So tomorrow, if we found half a dozen bargains, we would invest all our cash.”

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