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“The researchers looked deeper into these observations, in hopes of gaining insight into the mechanisms underlying the high evolutionary rate and extraordinary immunologic plasticity of influenza HA. They probed in more detail the precise codons that are used by the virus to encode the influenza HA1 protein. The discriminated between codons on the basis of volatility. Each three-nucleotide codon is related by a single nucleotide change to nine 'mutational neighbours.' Of those nine mutations, some proportion change the codon to a synonymous codon and some change it to a nonsynonymous one, which directs the incorporation of a different amino acid into the protein. More volatile codons are those for which a larger proportion of those nine mutational neighbours encode an amino acid change. The use of particular codons in a gene at a frequency that is disproportionate to their random selection for encoding a chosen amino acid is termed codon bias. Such bias is common and is influenced by many factors, but here the collaborators found strong evidence for codon bias that was particular for and restricted to the amino acids making up the HA1 epitopes. Remarkably, they observed that influenza employs a disproportionate number of volatile codons in its epitope-coding sequences. There was a bias for the use of codons that had the fewest synonymous mutational neighbours. In other words, influenza HA1 appears to have optimized the speed with which it can change amino acids in its epitopes. Amino acid changes can arise from fewer mutational events. The antibody combining regions are optimized to use codons that have a greater likelihood to undergo nonsynonymous single nucleotide substitutions : they are optimized for rapid evolution.”

EvolutionVolatilityInfluenzaEvolved For EvolvabilityVolatile Codons
Book:Viruses: Agents of Evolutionary Invention
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“Ridiculous as our market volatility might seem to an intelligent Martian, it is our reality and everyone loves to trot out the 'quote' attributed to Keynes (but never documented): 'The market can stay irrational longer than the investor can stay solvent.' For us agents, he might better have said 'The market can stay irrational longer than the client can stay patient.'”

SaidRealitySeemsMightIntelligentPatientRidiculousAgentsInvestorsClientsIrrationalOne LoveMartiansVolatilityKeynes
Author:Jeremy Grantham
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“There are several states that move from Karl Marx-like policies to Adam Smith-like policies and back again in a weekend. So for the states with huge volatility in their income tax policies over time, the differences in growth rates in those periods are really amazingly consistent with tax rates really mattering.”

StatesMovingGrowthDifferencesPolicyHugePeriodsTaxesRateIncomeConsistentWeekendAdamIncome TaxBack AgainReally AmazingVolatility
Author:Arthur Laffer
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“Who would you trust right now? Which bank would you trust? Which investment would you trust? Do you really want to put your money; do you want to suffer more of these losses that we just had? You know, these volatility that we see is just unexplainable by any rational standards. Nobody has any clue about how to explain this, and nobody wants to experience that. So, we hold more money back, we don't necessarily want to invest in the market and by default, people are saving more.”

PeopleKnowsWantSufferingLossRight NowStandardsInvestmentRationalSavingMore MoneyClueDefaultVolatilityUnexplainable
Author:Dan Ariely
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“The big picture is: the main thing you should be concerned about in the future are incremental returns on capital going forward. As it turns out, past history of a good return on capital is a good proxy for this but obviously not foolproof. I think this is an area where thoughtful analysis can add value to any simple ranking/screening strategy such as the magic formula. When doing in depth analysis of companies, I care very much about long term earnings power, not necessarily so much about the volatility of that earnings power but about my certainty of "normal" earnings power over time.”

ThinkingShouldLongBigsCarePastValuesTurnsTermSimpleCompanyMagicReturnNormalAreasConcernedStrategyAddDepthCertaintyAnalysisLong TermThoughtfulFormulasI CareEarningBig PictureScreeningRankingProxyVolatilityFoolproof
Author:Joel Greenblatt
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“Berkshire's whole record has been achieved without paying one ounce of attention to the efficient market theory in its hard form. And not one ounce of attention to the descendants of that idea, which came out of academic economics and went into corporate finance and morphed into such obscenities as the capital asset pricing model, which we also paid no attention to. I think you'd have to believe in the tooth fairy to believe that you could easily outperform the market by seven-percentage points per annum just by investing in high volatility stocks.”

ThinkingBelieveHas BeensIdeasHardWholeFormAttentionRecordsTheoryModelsEconomicsPaidSevenInvestingTeethFinanceCorporateFairyAssetsAcademicEfficientPercentagesDescendantsObscenityPricingVolatilityTooth FairyEfficient Markets
Author:Charlie Munger
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“Volatility is a symptom that people have no idea of the underlying value-that they have stopped playing the asset game. They're not buying because it's a company with certain attributes. They're buying because the price is rising. People are playing games not related to any concept at all of what the long-term value of the enterprise is. And they know it.”

PeopleKnowsLongIdeasCertainValuesGamesTermCompanyConceptsNo IdeaLong TermRelatedRisingBuyingEnterpriseAssetsAttributesSymptomsPlaying GamesVolatility
Author:Jeremy Grantham
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“We regard using [a stock's] volatility as a measure of risk is nuts. Risk to us is 1) the risk of permanent loss of capital, or 2) the risk of inadequate return. Some great businesses have very volatile returns - for example, See's [a candy company owned by Berkshire] usually loses money in two quarters of each year - and some terrible businesses can have steady results.”

YearsTwoLosesLossResultsCompanyRiskExampleReturnTerriblePermanentNutsQuartersSteadyCandyInadequateGreat BusinessVolatility
Author:Charlie Munger
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“I mean, we've always had gold bugs, but now we sort of realize that Treasure Bills might be in the same category. And we have derivatives like credit default swaps which are in this category, and we have derivatives like volatilities that are actually an asset class that we can invest in which are now - would out perform if we have another financial crisis.”

IfsMeanMightRealizingClassGoldCrisisBillsFinancialCreditTreasureAssetsCategoriesBugsDefaultFinancial CrisisDerivativesVolatilityCredit Default Swap
Author:Robert F. Engle
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“There's only one thing harder than living in a home with an adolescent - and that's being an adolescent. The moodiness, the volatility, the wholesale lack of impulse control, all would be close to clinical conditions if they occurred at another point in life. In adolescence, they're just part of the behavioral portfolio.”

IfsHomeWould BeOne ThingConditionsHarderImpulseAdolescencePortfoliosClinicalsWholesaleVolatilityPoints In LifeImpulse ControlMoodiness
Author:Jeffrey Kluger
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