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Probability Quotes

Browse 544 quotes about Probability.

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Probability Quotes

“It appears that there are enormous differences of opinion as to the probability of a failure with loss of vehicle and of human life. The estimates range from roughly 1 in 100 to 1 in 100,000. The higher figures come from the working engineers, and the very low figures from management.”

HumansDifferencesLossOpinionFiguresHigherLowsManagementSafetyEnormousRangeHuman LifeAviationVehicleEngineersProbabilityDifferences Of Opinion
Book:What Do You Care What Other People Think?
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“The difficulty in judging what type of behavior works well arises not only because a given course of action does not always produce the outcomes. Similar outcomes can occur for reasons other than the person's actions, which further complicates inferential judgment. Effects that arise independently of one's actions distort the influence of similar effects produced by the actions, but only on some occasions. Given a strong cognitive set to perceive regularities, even chance joint occurrences of events can be easily misjudged as genuine relationships of low contingent probability”

WellsPersonsDoeReasonActionCoursesStrongGivenChanceInfluenceEffectsEventsProduceJudgingTypeBehaviorJudgmentLowsDifficultyGenuineAriseOccasionsPerceiveOutcomesProbabilityJointsCognitiveRegularitySelf Efficacy
Author:Albert Bandura
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“At 55 I said the probability is I won't have another relationship. I just didn't want to start another family. Between my own bizarre criteria and taste and the fact that I'm not available for many things I thought it was unlikely. Once you know the science about it, I don't think anybody should consider being committed to a real eternal relationship until you're through something called the infatuation circle.”

ThinkingKnowsWantShouldSaidRealFactsMy OwnTasteEternalCommittedAvailableCirclesProbabilityBizarreInfatuationUnlikelyCriteria
Author:Jack Nicholson
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“Do not personally give any more conscious consideration, either of you, to events that you do not want to happen. Any such concentration, to whatever degree, ties you in with those probabilities, so concentrate upon what you want, and as far as public events are concerned, take it for granted that sometimes even men are wiser than they know.”

KnowsMenWantGivingSometimesHappensEventsDegreesConsciousConcernedWhat You WantGrantedTiesConsiderationConcentrationWiserProbability
Author:Seth
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“If zero percent of the elites support something, very low chance it's going to pass, if 100% support something, very high chance it's going to pass. Same thing for organized interest groups. But for the average voter, it's a flat line. Which says it doesn't matter whether zero percent of the public believes something or 100% of the average voters believe something - it doesn't affect the probability that that thing will be enacted.”

IfsBelieveMatterInterestLinesChanceSupportGroupsLowsPercentAverageOrganizedFlatsZeroVotersElitesProbabilityInterest Groups
Author:Lawrence Lessig
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“It is profitable wisdom to know when we have done enough: Much time and pains are spared in not flattering ourselves against probabilities.”

KnowsDoneEnoughPainProbabilityProfitableFlattering
Book:A Collection of the Works of William Penn: To which is Prefixed a Journal of His Life, with Many Original Letters and Papers Not Before Published
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“A thoughtful investment process contemplates both probability and payoffs and carefully considers where the consensus - as revealed by a price - may be wrong. Even though there are also some important features that make investing different than, say, a casino or the track, the basic idea is the same: you want the positive expected value on your side”

WantMayImportantIdeasDifferentValuesProcessSidesInvestmentInvestingTrackExpectedFeaturesThoughtfulContemplatingProbabilityConsensusYour SideCasinosPayoff
Author:Michael Mauboussin
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“It follows that the word probability, in its mathematical acceptance, has reference to the state of our knowledge of the circumstances under which an event may happen or fail. With the degree of information we possess concerning the circumstances of an event, the reason we have to think that it will occur, or, to use a single term, our expectation of it will vary. Probability is the expectation founded upon partial knowledge.”

ThinkingMayStatesReasonUseHappensTermFailingEventsInformationAcceptanceCircumstancesDegreesExpectationsMathematicalProbabilityVary
Book:An Investigation of the Laws of Thought
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“On moral grounds, I think that if you believe a certain outcome is a very possible outcome, you have an obligation to tell people that. With global warming, the probability of a bad outcome if we stay on our current emission trends is incredibly high. If you know a bad outcome is likely to happen, what right do you have not to communicate that? You go into a doctor's office, what are they going to do - not tell you the diagnosis?”

PeopleIfsThinkingKnowsBelieveHappensCertainMoralOfficeDoctorsCurrentsCommunicateObligationOutcomesGlobal WarmingTrendsProbabilityIf You BelieveDiagnosisEmissions
Author:Joseph J. Romm
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“I have resigned from the professional undertaking of coin flipping. I am not here to tell you where gold's going to be. I have no idea. That's my existentialism. I am a student of uncertainty, I have no idea where the stock market is going to be. So when I am creating trades in my portfolio for my clients, I am agnostic. I just want to enhance the probability that I make money come what may.”

WantMayIdeasStudentsCreatingGoldTradeMaking MoneyNo IdeaUncertaintyExistentialismClientsAgnosticProbabilityCoinsUndertakingsResignedPortfolios
Author:Hugh Hendry
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“One of the most basic and pervasive social processes is the sorting and labeling of things, activities, and people... Sorting and labeling processes involve a trade-off of costs and benefits. In general, the more finely the sorting is done, the greater the benefits - and the costs... Sorting and labeling, whether of people or of things, is a sorting and labeling of probabilities rather than of certainties.”

PeopleDoneSocialProcessGreaterCostActivityBenefitsTradeCertaintyProbabilityLabelingSortingTrade Offs
Author:Thomas Sowell
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“In short, absolute, so-called mathematical, factors never find a firm basis in military calculations. From the very start, there is an interplay of possibilities, probabilities, good luck and bad, that weaves its way throughout the length and breadth of the tapestry. In the whole range of human activities, war most closely resembles a game of cards.”

WayHumansWarWholeGamesMilitaryPossibilityActivityBasesAbsolutesLuckFactorsCardsMathematicalRangeFirmLengthProbabilityGood LuckCalculationsHuman ActivityBreadthTapestry
Author:Carl von Clausewitz
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“Science fiction - and the correct shortcut is 'sf' - uses actual scientific facts or theories for the source ideas or framework of the story. It has some scientific content, however speculative. If it breaks a law of physics, it knows it's doing so and follows up the consequences. If it invents a society of aliens, it does so with some respect for and knowledge of the social sciences and what you might call social probabilities. And some of it is literarily self-aware enough to treat its metaphors as metaphors.”

IfsKnowsDoeIdeasSelfEnoughFactsStoriesUseMightLawSocialFictionBreakTheorySourceConsequenceTreatsScience FictionMetaphorPhysicsAliensProbabilityFrameworkShortcutsSocial ScienceLaws Of PhysicsScientific FactsFollow Up
Author:Ursula K. Le Guin
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“Customers are wrestling with mission-critical decisions, evaluating solutions that all sound the same, and struggling to achieve the value they expect, when experience has shown them that far too many solutions come packaged with a high degree of risk and a low probability of success.”

ValuesSoundDecisionStruggleRiskAchieveDegreesSolutionsLowsMissionsCriticalCustomersWrestlingProbabilityCritical Decisions
Book:Mastering the Complex Sale: How to Compete and Win When the Stakes are High!
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“Man's destiny was no longer determined from 'above' by a super-human wisdom and will, but from 'below' by the sub-human agencies of glands, genes, atoms, or waves of probability. ...they could determine his fate, but could provide him with no moral guidance, no values and meaning. A puppet of the Gods is a tragic figure, a puppet suspended on his chromosomes is merely grotesque.”

MenHumansValuesMoralDestinyFateFiguresWaveDetermineDeterminedGuidanceAgencyTragicAtomsGenesProbabilityPuppetsSuspendedGrotesqueGlandsHuman WisdomChromosomes
Author:Arthur Koestler
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“Expert estimates of probability are often off by factors of hundreds or thousands. [...] I used to be annoyed when the margin of error was high in a forecasting model that I might put together. Now I view it as perhaps the single most important piece of information that a forecaster provides. When we publish a forecast on FiveThirtyEight, I go to great lengths to document the uncertainty attached to it, even if the uncertainty is sufficiently large that the forecast won't make for punchy headlines.”

IfsImportantMightTogetherUsedViewsPiecesInformationModelsErrorsFactorsUsed To BeUncertaintyExpertsLengthDocumentsProbabilityPublishMarginsAnnoyedHeadlinesForecastsForecasting
Author:Nate Silver
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“A realistic definition of risk recognizes the potential loss of capital through inflation and taxes, and would include at least the following two factors: The probability that the investment you chose will preserve your capital over the time you intend to invest your funds. The probability the investments you select will outperform alternative investments for this period.”

TwoLossRiskPeriodsTaxesInvestmentDefinitionsFollowingFactorsAlternativesPreservesFundRealisticProbabilityInflationSelect
Book:Contrarian Investment Strategies in the Next Generation
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